Community

Share knowledge. Find answers. Ask questions.

Online Share Trading

Engage and learn about markets and trading online

What's happening in the community

Latest activity

A former Social worker has more intellect than most of the South African Investment/Financial houses had manage investment funds.  Can you imagine a team of just 3 can outperform most of  the Investm... See more...
A former Social worker has more intellect than most of the South African Investment/Financial houses had manage investment funds.  Can you imagine a team of just 3 can outperform most of  the Investment fund managers. These fund managers get top dollar for the work they do , drive fancy cars, drink expensive coffeess charging people top dollar to invest their money, How patheitc they must feel?
 Welcome back Simon! May we all make more money this year! :-)
Going ballistic.....very volatile on low volume on JSE, someone trying to score a quick buck.No thank you l just keep mine! DustyMountain wrote: Anybody else invested and excited about this coun... See more...
Going ballistic.....very volatile on low volume on JSE, someone trying to score a quick buck.No thank you l just keep mine! DustyMountain wrote: Anybody else invested and excited about this counter... PFS released today looks promising!    
  The outcome if the ANC’s elective conference may have been a favourable one for the rand and market watchers but despite this, SA Inc isn’t out of the woods just yet. Economically, this ... See more...
  The outcome if the ANC’s elective conference may have been a favourable one for the rand and market watchers but despite this, SA Inc isn’t out of the woods just yet. Economically, this week we’re expecting an announcement from the SARB on Thursday. Bloomberg consensus is the rate is unlikely to be changed at 6.75%. Our economics team’s outlook for inflation for 2018 is mellow owing to a stronger rand and a positive agricultural outlook for the year. Consumer inflation is expected to average 4.4% this year. The MPC’s Quarterly Projection Model forecasts a 75-basis point rate hike by the end of 2018. The underlying assumptions behind this forecast being the Bank will chase 4.5% inflation and a neutral real rate of 2.2%. Despite these projections, our research team is of the view that the Bank will be hesitant to change rates ahead of the Budget Speech and Moody’s credit rating outcome. This is to avoid their decision colliding with the possibility that the aforementioned events may have a negative impact on the rand. Our team expects a 25bps rate cut for 2018. On the rand front, our research team foresees sustained rand strength due to lower expectations from the global landscape.  Capital flows into emerging markets are very likely to be robust. In South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa stepping into the presidency has restored much needed confidence. The rand should be kept in the strong zone – but there are several risks worth keeping an eye on. The first is a slowdown in growth for the Chinese market. Investors should also pay attention to US numbers, as higher inflation may mean central banks will be tinkering with monetary policy to keep inflation under control. Domestically, there are factors that are likely to affect the current account – namely the implementation of President Zuma’s free education announcement made late last year. This is likely to be a key part of the budget speech. We’re yet to hear news of how, exactly, this is to be achieved. That said, our global currency strategist’s forecasts for the dollar for 20018 tell of a weaker dollar over the next two years. This view is informed by the US move to protectionism, the new tax laws which will result in tax cuts and a subsequent widening of the budget and trade deficits. The Euro is expected to go in the opposite direction as… Given the context above, the rand is forecast to hit the R12.50/$ by the end of 2018 and R12.70/$ by the end of 2019. Against the pound, a slight decline to R17.50/£ by end 2018 and R19.30/£ by end 2019. The euro/ZAR will fall a bit more sharply to R16.25/ € by end 2018 and R17.17 € by end 2019. For full research reports, visit www.standardbank.co.za/research
Vince Cable was heard on TV the other night stating what I anyway consider to be a great truth - its simply this - that when private sector failures happen the shareholders cannot expect the state( t... See more...
Vince Cable was heard on TV the other night stating what I anyway consider to be a great truth - its simply this - that when private sector failures happen the shareholders cannot expect the state( taxpayer) to rescue their interests from failure - while in the good times they  simply carry on and make profits. That is a one way bet. Hence the recent past great mistake made by governments in bailing out the banks. In the case of  SA's almost univerally disastrously managed  SOE 's the position is that the onus is ALLWAYS on the state both as the shareholder representative . and in the accountable quasi executive role of the Minister to encure that no call is made upon the taxpayer that is unwarranted in the context  - of providing essential services - but here we have examples that do not stack up- SAA and so on.  And in the context of SNH - any actions that the state organs may take are  always going to be limited to addressing regualtion/negligance/ criminality -and that does not give rise to some obligation to make good  losses. 
I remember not so long ago, many people was short selling Kumba through their words. Today Kumba are close to R400 and made a mockery of many people. 
Hi Guys, what is your advice as regards this dividend, take the dividend or the shares?
Hi Simon - thanks for this post. I'm a keen student of visual display of information, especially graphs. A key tenet of effective visual displays is to make them as intuitive as possible, that is, mo... See more...
Hi Simon - thanks for this post. I'm a keen student of visual display of information, especially graphs. A key tenet of effective visual displays is to make them as intuitive as possible, that is, more accessible than text - otherwise they lose their intended advantage. As a small investor, I'm puzzled by the above graphic. T he catching colours of the graphic do not seem to be matched by the yield of useful information. It is about the returns from the JSE top 40 listed companies by market capitalisation. Fair enough, but does the graph represent that?  To begin with, what is the empirically demonstrated relationship between dividend yield and share price movement of a stock?  In graphing, isn't there supposed to be a hypothesised relationship between dependent and independent variables, at least? Sorry, I'm just a small time investor. Then comes the P/E ratio which you add in. How does that relate to the dividend yield and share price movement? A cursory look at your graph does not seem to yield any obvious pattern. Companies with similar P/E ratios (for example, FFA, RDF, NED, SBK,OML,SAP,SOL) have widely differing returns and dividend yields. Please, again, pardon this small investor. All this may be above my head.  The most important question I ask myself as a small investor at the end of the year is, "Was it worth the sleepless nights (risk in other words)?" A simple plot of the price movements (with or without the dividend payments added in for total return) plotted against (ubiquitously available) share beta values would be a great device for answering that question. This can also be done by sectors as well, since we know that the beta for the index is 1.0. So, relative to the riskiness, which shares were the best investments in financial services sector amongst OML, SLM,SBK, NED, DSY, for example? I hope you forgive me for mentioning the obvious (but I've seen funny plots before), the (total) return is the dependent variable (Y-axis) and the beta value is the independent variable (X-axis). You may well discover in the process that the market cap, dividend yield and P/E ratios don't have very much to do with fair (risk-adjusted) returns. I guess I'm trying to say that your conclusion about "a good year for large stocks with a few winners in the top left hand corner" may have been rather casual, as a summary statement. Then again, long leisurely summer holidays tend to soften our minds. Please forgive me if I have caused any offence, for none was intended. I'm just a small joe with only a few pennies to his name and no race horse whatsoever. But I do love pictures that speak a thousand words. Maybe the ones for 2018 will?
The Top40 stocks and their 2017 returns including; dividend yield, historic PE, market cap and percentage move for the year.     Steinhoff not shown, but it would be way down bottom righ... See more...
The Top40 stocks and their 2017 returns including; dividend yield, historic PE, market cap and percentage move for the year.     Steinhoff not shown, but it would be way down bottom right it is was.   Overall a good year for large stocks with a few winners in the top left corner. Simon
This formation has played out beautifully. First target has been reached, now hanging 10 for 250p to be hit.
Quote from Bloomberg "While the share price reacted violently to the lack of progress Tuesday with bank creditors, the bonds of Steinhoff were less perturbed. But that is because they’re already assu... See more...
Quote from Bloomberg "While the share price reacted violently to the lack of progress Tuesday with bank creditors, the bonds of Steinhoff were less perturbed. But that is because they’re already assuming no value for shareholders. There will be some worth in Steinhoff’s retail chains. But investors shouldn’t get their hopes up that it will be much". © 2017 Bloomberg
possible share trading suspension 
nav now equal to trading price - interest bill - assuming there are no hidden loans to buy horses with ...looks manageable - focus on distribution centres - and  350 stores roll out..somewhere ssouth... See more...
nav now equal to trading price - interest bill - assuming there are no hidden loans to buy horses with ...looks manageable - focus on distribution centres - and  350 stores roll out..somewhere ssouth of Keimoes? Anyway - looks oversold to me at this point  
too late for what? Mr_Money wrote: No good news fortcoming. Looks like massive FRAUD has taken place. Even the auditors cant get a hold of this. Sell before it's to late? too late for what?
No good news fortcoming. Looks like massive FRAUD has taken place. Even the auditors cant get a hold of this. Sell before it's to late?
So who bought the shares - not a single purchaser obviously
I hear the word "short" quite often. How can I short SNH and make money ? I beleive even at R9, the price is still heavy overloaded 
forgot to add , SNH overpaid for acquisitions.    Maybe closer to R2 rather R4 but the possibility that it could be de-listed makes not worth it? Any thoughts? Anyone?   As the  saying goes  in i... See more...
forgot to add , SNH overpaid for acquisitions.    Maybe closer to R2 rather R4 but the possibility that it could be de-listed makes not worth it? Any thoughts? Anyone?   As the  saying goes  in investment circles -----------------"never catch falling knives"
R4 is my highest possible valuation. The shares could even be suspended , this work take years to any money back as the creditors always get paid first

From the blog

 
econ hub2.PNG
The outcome if the ANC’s elective conference may have been a favourable one for the rand and market watchers but despite this, SA Inc isn’t out of the woods jus...
0
0
Posted by
top40_2017_ytd.jpg
The Top40 stocks and their 2017 returns including; dividend yield, historic PE, market cap and percentage move for the year. Steinhoff not shown, but it would b...
1
1
Posted by
Last reply Jan 3, 2018
More articles