Trading update for AEEI Shareholders are hereby advised that a reasonable degree of certainty exists that the earnings per share and headline earnings per share of the Company for the six-month pe...
Trading update for AEEI Shareholders are hereby advised that a reasonable degree of certainty exists that the earnings per share and headline earnings per share of the Company for the six-month period ended 28 February 2017, will be at least 50% higher than reported in the previous corresponding period. PFF should go up based on this trading statement as the own about 50% of PFF ?
The chances of Labour and Liberals and the SNP ( idea just rejected) of combining to effect any upset at the polls is about as good as any RSA SOE winning World recognition for efficiency and compete...
The chances of Labour and Liberals and the SNP ( idea just rejected) of combining to effect any upset at the polls is about as good as any RSA SOE winning World recognition for efficiency and competent governance and management. IE no chance. Moreover there is no second vote on Brexit - Sorry Tony! - official or unofficial. So here goes - banks - avoid , property.. distorted still- avoid or be very selective, services - oops Berlin here we come( this is the big item and there is lots of uncertainty) post the French shambles of an election. But that said Macron will get in and the AFD will not get in in Germany. But all that said I am ALSO still long on the FTSE100 and I think that is all really based on a weak pound arising from - mostly uncertainty - this divorce will take 365x2 days minus 1 to finalise - and even then there will be lots of areas of uncertainty. We Brits are in for a huge dissapointment . But that is just a repeat of history.
Posted 26/10/2016 – ASTRAL (ARL) The 100day MA of yellow maize (YM) is R3280, spot currently R3170 July futures R2530, Soya 100 day MA R6870, peaking at R8000, current spot R6600 with July futures at ...
Posted 26/10/2016 – ASTRAL (ARL) The 100day MA of yellow maize (YM) is R3280, spot currently R3170 July futures R2530, Soya 100 day MA R6870, peaking at R8000, current spot R6600 with July futures at R6030. Chicken and Pig feed comprises from 70 to 90% of these two commodities, add to that, that 60% and more is the cost of feed for producing chicken and pork, input costs are going to be coming down by a significant margin. They also the largest produces of animal feed that is sold to farmers etc., and you can rest assured that the full saving is not going to be passed on. I'm betting on a price of 150-160 in 9 months and if there are favourable farming conditions then 170 plus is my guess, wasn't too long ago this share was over 200. I have been accumulating both long term and CFD below 120 and seriously thinking of adding more. RCL have diversified a lot from what used to be purely a chicken producer (Rainbow), so the above will have less effect on them. SOV have shareholders at war, maybe QFH could also benefit. White maize 100day MA R4200, spot R3600, July futures R2570 a big plus for PFG, the biggest producers of maize meal in SA, owning the leading brands. ...........Time will tell. Posted 20/10/2016 after Threshold’s reply This is a movie I've seen often. The Rand has and always will be subject to wild swings which are beyond our control, no one can predict where the Rand will be in 2 hours time after the FM has given this speech. I box in the same ring as Meadow, Epol, De Heus and a Tongaat subsidiary, albeit in the light flyweight division, so I'm pretty confident with my prediction. Present In this sector most of the companies are so diversified in their makeup that it is difficult to say they are purely an agricultural play, TON, what used to be mainly sugar/aluminium is now sugar/property, where in 2016 property was 10% of revenue yet producing 62% of the profit. AVI more consumer than agricultural, TBS as well after having hived off ARL. Like TBS, PFG have jettisoned the animal feed and poultry in the form of QFH, whereas the old Rainbow (was a ten bagger for me), has gone the in opposite direction in becoming RCL because of REM’s influence. ZED, I would say is the closest to solely an agricultural play, as they have a greater exposure percentage wise to that area than the previously mentioned. RFG…? I stick to the stocks that have a far greater exposure to raw materials that I also use, as I know the effect it has on my businesses, and to a certain extent will have on theirs as well.
With the first round of the French electi ons behind us, the euro seems to have kicked up against other major currencies although the rand had held its own on that front. It’s looking a little more ...
With the first round of the French electi ons behind us, the euro seems to have kicked up against other major currencies although the rand had held its own on that front.
It’s looking a little more stable on the political front back home, although we still need to hear what the courts have to say about the speaker allowing a secret ballot for the no-confidence vote, and a new date.
Other than that, it’s a pretty short week.
Thursday is a public holiday and we’re unlikely to see much movement on Friday. However, in these uncertain times it’s always worth keeping a close eye on domestic and international developments because one never knows what’s next.
For the week ahead:
Monday, 24 April
Anglo American AGM
March liquidations Stats SA
Tuesday, 25 April
SARB publishes leading indicator
Kumba Iron Ore Q1 production update
Wednesday, 26 April
March producer price index numbers from Stats SA
Thursday, 27 April
Public holiday – Freedom Day
Friday, 28 April
March trade statistics – SARS
- Source: Business Times
I want to look at one of the biases that can seriously hinder a trader or investor without us even being aware – and that bias is known as confirmation bias. Confirmation bias says that if we believ...
I want to look at one of the biases that can seriously hinder a trader or investor without us even being aware – and that bias is known as confirmation bias. Confirmation bias says that if we believe something to be true we’ll focus on information that confirms our belief while discarded information that runs contra to our belief. Say for example I believe the Sharks are the best rugby team in the world I will focus on data that confirms that and ignore data that contradicts that (like their inability to win anything in recent years). A real-world example would be a stock you have owned that has done very well, so naturally you love that stock. Hence you keep on searching for information that suggests you should hang onto the stock while ignoring possible information that says could be changing for the worse with the stock. The point is that with confirmation bias we’re not actually doing true research as it should always be done with an open mind. Instead we’re merely trying to confirm an existing belief. To avoid this bias, we need to use strong processes in our trading and investing. As a trader, I only trade mechanical systems so there is no research or opinion allowed into my trading systems, this removes any biases (if I stick to the rules). Have a checklist that defines the process before entering a trade, and which forces you to focus on both sides of the bias (positive and negative). As an investor your checklist would force you to look at all important aspects of a company rather then let you get carried away by a few points that look positive. For example a companies growth may seem awesome and we get blinded by that growth potential but miss the massive amount of debt that expires soon and which the company currently can’t repay. So a checklist would include a number of fundamental pieces of data that you’d have to examine and check off before one is able to actually invest. Importantly not everything on the checklist will necessarily be positive; a few negatives is not the end of the world.
I wonder how many of you saw Warren Buffett's "story" on the telly the other night - there was one point made( amongst many ) which struck me - and that was that Charlie Munger influenced his thinkin...
I wonder how many of you saw Warren Buffett's "story" on the telly the other night - there was one point made( amongst many ) which struck me - and that was that Charlie Munger influenced his thinking towards buying good companies with underpriced shares as opposed to shares of businesses which are cheap but where the quality of the company is not in focus( ergo investment versus trading ?) . And of course with that goes the vital ingredient of time. And we mean lots of the lastmentioned. For the novice like me that was useful..
Someone - -Simon will probably know - please tell me how do I access some agricutrural producers and service suppliers - eg Kaap AGRI and others - not on Altex unless I am blind which is always possible?.
Snap UK election for 8 June, May betting on weak poll numbers for Labour at the moment. But I think this may be a lot closer as it becomes a second vote on the Brexit issue and assuming the Tories cam...
Snap UK election for 8 June, May betting on weak poll numbers for Labour at the moment. But I think this may be a lot closer as it becomes a second vote on the Brexit issue and assuming the Tories campaign on leave if Labour and/or the Liberals can efectively campaign as remainers the result most likely a hung parliament.
Double confusing as the UK just triggered aticle 50!
For markets, Sterling likes so far and that's good for dual listed listed here and on the LSE. FTSE250 likely a big winner as it's been hurt post the leave vote as they more UK concentrated. FTSE100* was weak already this morning but has weakened further as the weak Sterling helped many of the large multi nationals listed on the LSE and in the FTSE100 (helped because weaker Sterling made their products cheaper in other makrets).
* I am long FTSE100 via DBXUK in my lazy trading system since early December 2016.
While political tensions brew on Twitter and across the Pacifi c, uncertainty around what the US will do next seems to be backing the rand favourably. The UK has also issued an emergency statement a...
While political tensions brew on Twitter and across the Pacifi c, uncertainty around what the US will do next seems to be backing the rand favourably.
The UK has also issued an emergency statement alert which sent the pound tumbling. There are many rumours doing the rounds so best to watch developments closely on that front.
France is also worth keeping an eye on from the international front. Voter despondency seems to have settled in on the French so the vote could swing any which way. While several polls are predicting a Macron win, events such as Brexit and the US elections last year indicate that a ‘wait and see’ approach is probably best.
Back home, political tensions seem to have mellowed down. The vote of no confidence postponed due to the UDM’s application with the ConCourt for a secret ballot.
New Finance Minister, Malusi Gigaba, is in the US this week for an investor roadshow.
The week ahead
Tuesday, 18 April
PSG Group annual
Wednesday, 19 April
Pick ‘n Pay annual results
March CPI figures (Stats SA)
US Fed – Beige Book of economic conditions issued
Thursday, 20 April
Astrapak annual results
Feb figures of civil cases for debt (Stats SA)
Friday, 21 April
Clicks Group interim results
IMF/World Bank annual spring meeting in Washington (ends 23 April)
- Data source: Business Times
b)If you go to their dividend declarations and look at GROSS to NET you will see a truck load of charges - over and above the DWT comes off which is another blow to one's returns I think I calculated ...
b)If you go to their dividend declarations and look at GROSS to NET you will see a truck load of charges - over and above the DWT comes off which is another blow to one's returns I think I calculated a 75% reduction ....?
What’s the single main purpose of any business? It must be profit? What’s the best way of measuring profit? That must be cash paid back to shareholders, dividends? Now sure there are a lot of other ...
What’s the single main purpose of any business? It must be profit? What’s the best way of measuring profit? That must be cash paid back to shareholders, dividends? Now sure there are a lot of other moving parts in any business and they’re important. But my first port of call with any set of results I am looking at is the dividend, simply I want to see it moving higher. In my ideal world results will show increased revenue with earnings (HEPS) increasing at a higher rate and dividend at a still higher rate. For example; revenue +10%, HEPS +15% and dividend +20%. That shows me a business firing on all cylinders and achieving its core function of making profits for the shareholders. What I also look at when first investigating a stock for my portfolio is the dividend cover policy. This is the amount of profits that the company pays out as dividends. Some stocks will have a cover as low as say 1.5x, in other words a 150c HEPS will see a 100c dividend. Others may be less aggressive and have a 3x cover (paying 50c of that 150c HEPS as dividend). More mature stocks with lower growth potential will likely have a lower dividend cover, but I don’t mind so much what the dividend cover policy is. Rather I want to see what it is and how it has changed over time. As the company grows and matures we should see the dividend cover reducing slowly. A last point or two. Cyclical stocks such as miners will have boom or bust and as such the dividend will at times disappear. This is the nature of cyclical stocks and one of the reasons why I consider them more trading them long-term buy and hold stocks. That trading period may be years and needn’t be geared, but ultimately they will see profits and dividends collapsing and I don’t want to be holding during that period. Small cap stocks also require a different approach. They may well be making profits but they could be putting all the profits back into the company to grow the business. Here I am happy to hold small and midcap stocks but I don’t consider them long-term investments until they have proved themselves and are issuing strong and growing dividends. Simon