well, clearing the corruption charges is great - it leaves their government contracts in tact - so the concern over 30% of their revenue is no longer an issue. Problem is you still have to deal with the profit warning. EPS of 160cps with a long term average PE of 11 puts a fair value at 1700-1800 level. Nice if you caught this just before the news, not enough incentive left for me to consider getting in now (maybe if we have a crazy volatile pullback tomorrow I might take a cheeky position)
This could be my killing of the year. We all make money from a lucky buy sometimes and this was one of mine. The important thing is to recognise it was luck and nothing clever but I'll take it. Of course they still have insider trading investigations ongoing.
This time last week I was totally underwater, this afternoon I am surfin again..:-) but I think R17-00 will be tops in the near future, but if they maintain the divi.. who knows..!! I cant help wondering if we have not witnessed one of the biggest Bear Raids in on the JSE in recent times, I wonder who was buying while others were fearful as Buffett would say..:-)
45% up :) I kept adding on the way down because I think they're a smart company. Although can't take any credit for predicting this jump - the director thing was always a binary outcome. My bet was long-term and I still only care about the divs 5-10 years from now since I'm unlikely to be selling.
To be honest I am quite surprised by this rally. The integrity of the board has been tainted regardless of the results.. There probably are old bones in the closet somewhere just waiting for some one to find it..
there are issues that remain, revenue growth of 7% is extremely modest when you consider weaker rand should have on it's own added 7% .. so negative unit sales, ie losing market share that MST seems to have picked up .. when you just a box dropper this is a real risk .. the deal with DCT runs risk of not happening any time soon as they would have wanted to pay with expensive script, now they have cheap script .. lastly they say that government sales in the last quarter where not 'significantly' down .. but they were there down, and maybe it as a result of the election in Q4 .. that's the lost market share and that only in Q4, what of FY15 ?? short version, too many unknowns, I want to see results first and the details ..
Yep apart from the governance issues which are still under investigation what matters now is future earnings. And last night Director Henry Ferreira was interviewed on BDTV or CNBC. He said the usual "I cannot discuss results" but he did and I quote, "Margins are being squeezed by increased competition and cost pressures." Unfortunately the interviewer talked over the remark and didn't pick it up but it was very clear.