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Someone - -Simon will probably know - please tell me how do I access some agricutrural producers and service suppliers - eg Kaap AGRI and others - not on Altex unless I am blind
which is always possible?.
Posted 26/10/2016 – ASTRAL (ARL)
The 100day MA of yellow maize (YM) is R3280, spot currently R3170 July futures R2530, Soya 100 day MA R6870, peaking at R8000, current spot R6600 with July futures at R6030. Chicken and Pig feed comprises from 70 to 90% of these two commodities, add to that, that 60% and more is the cost of feed for producing chicken and pork, input costs are going to be coming down by a significant margin. They also the largest produces of animal feed that is sold to farmers etc., and you can rest assured that the full saving is not going to be passed on. I'm betting on a price of 150-160 in 9 months and if there are favourable farming conditions then 170 plus is my guess, wasn't too long ago this share was over 200. I have been accumulating both long term and CFD below 120 and seriously thinking of adding more. RCL have diversified a lot from what used to be purely a chicken producer (Rainbow), so the above will have less effect on them. SOV have shareholders at war, maybe QFH could also benefit. White maize 100day MA R4200, spot R3600, July futures R2570 a big plus for PFG, the biggest producers of maize meal in SA, owning the leading brands. ...........Time will tell.
Posted 20/10/2016 after Threshold’s reply
This is a movie I've seen often. The Rand has and always will be subject to wild swings which are beyond our control, no one can predict where the Rand will be in 2 hours time after the FM has given this speech. I box in the same ring as Meadow, Epol, De Heus and a Tongaat subsidiary, albeit in the light flyweight division, so I'm pretty confident with my prediction.
In this sector most of the companies are so diversified in their makeup that it is difficult to say they are purely an agricultural play, TON, what used to be mainly sugar/aluminium is now sugar/property, where in 2016 property was 10% of revenue yet producing 62% of the profit. AVI more consumer than agricultural, TBS as well after having hived off ARL. Like TBS, PFG have jettisoned the animal feed and poultry in the form of QFH, whereas the old Rainbow (was a ten bagger for me), has gone the in opposite direction in becoming RCL because of REM’s influence. ZED, I would say is the closest to solely an agricultural play, as they have a greater exposure percentage wise to that area than the previously mentioned. RFG…?
I stick to the stocks that have a far greater exposure to raw materials that I also use, as I know the effect it has on my businesses, and to a certain extent will have on theirs as well.