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So just some match box calcs here; Steinhoff trading at just under 400 this morning, which puts it at a market cap of around 17 billion. From their website, Moneyweb, and SENS, they still own about 5.6 bill in KAP, 58 bill in STAR and 1.3 bill in PSG (according to what I can find). Without taking into account any "value" of their Americo-Euro operations. If they had to unbundle STAR you would get about R13.40 for SNH share. So what todays trading prices tells, is that Mr Market thinks the "possible / probable / enventual" fine, courtesy Mr Jooste, is going to suck all that "value" down to R4 a share....???? Is that about right? Sorry for lots of inverted commas and all that. Common sense (in my convoluted mind, the sense is not always that common, lol), tells me that it is in no-ones interest, to fine Steinhoff into bankruptcy - but I guess bigger companies have gone kaput.
My mind goes back to - was it Johan Rupert, who in late 2008, said soemthing like "The guys with b$lls have no bucks and the guys with bucks have no b$lls". At he end of the Steinhaff debacle, I wonder who will have "b$lls" and who will have bucks.
I agree for the most part - just not sure how to value this at all - without any punishment news, its just a dart.....assuming Mr Market is correct, then it looks like the difference between the "value" and the current share price might be the price to pay.....or something like that. I am certainly not punting this. But, I do remember having this sort of chat with a buddy, about Old Mutual, Anglo (last year) and ISA (many years ago)......
I am reluctant to equate OM and AGL with SNH - given their collapses were not the product of collossal fraud - which is the case here.
So cheap is not a term I can use with any confidence with SNH.
I am a long term invester. I own Steinhoff shares,before this big Stellenbosch scandal Wiese,Jooste etc,etc.
I paid 66.75 per share.
I bought more shares to average out 8.26 per share.
I know averaging out a share is normally not good, but I reason this a special case !
I feel they can turn this company around within 3 years,estimated share price 3x8.26=24.78
or is this a highly impossible dream.
A general meeting takes place on 20th of April when Steinhoff must come clean on all outstanding issues and
re-instate 2014-2017 financial reports.
Forum please give me your opinion.
So now the property chickens ae having their heads reapplied and are coming home to roost - and probably (?) at a significant discount to the stated 2.2bn
The only time you will not be betting on an outcome is when the facts are on the table - and even then as is common caue there will be weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth
as they overpaid hugely for the stuff they bought. Hubris to the power of 10 got them here and its reversal will be their come-uppance.