Community

Share knowledge. Find answers. Ask questions.

Online Share Trading

Engage and learn about markets and trading online

AEG,GND

Reply
Valued Contributor

Re:Re:AEG,GND

if you read the statements from the weekend conference, nothing suggested they are going back to industrialisation, they've already built everything they need so no new demand for steel etc. .. but hey things moving; either you making money, losing it or watching agog from the side lines .. one is a bad place to be ..
0 Kudos
Reply
Eurostar
Contributor

Re:AEG,GND

KIO has been good too me, sold out yesterday.. out on the sidelines for now and will wait for the ecstasy party too subside!!
0 Kudos
Reply
Super Contributor

Re:Re:Re:AEG,GND

Exactly Simon, so explain yesterdays 20% move on iron ore?? Explain the moves we seeing in Copper, Oil, Platinum... If industrialisation days are behind China surely these companies are going to suffer, with the cheap negative interest rates out there, only more will be able to survive now..Huge oversupply I see..
0 Kudos
Reply
Super Contributor

Re:Re:Re:Re:AEG,GND

The central banks have created financial policies that will lead to another bubble. By giving free money, more of these zombie commodity companies will now be able to survive for longer thereby worsening the supply issue, instead of following the natural order of things and allowing them to fold.. So supply demand can come into alignment of some sorts
0 Kudos
Reply
N/A

Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:AEG,GND

just make sure you don't lack the spirit of your convictions there Hali. If this is your trading theory (and it isn't a very good one, IMO - because this is nothing new, already known and theorized ad nauseum) - anyways where was I - if this is your theory, then act on it. But you have to know at what point in time you will be willing to accept defeat. I do hope that wasn't yesterday afternoon.
0 Kudos
Reply
N/A

Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:AEG,GND

just make sure you don't lack the spirit of your convictions there Hali. If this is your trading theory (and it isn't a very good one, IMO - because this is nothing new, already known and theorized ad nauseum) - anyways where was I - if this is your theory, then act on it. But you have to know at what point in time you will be willing to accept defeat. I do hope that wasn't yesterday afternoon.
0 Kudos
Reply
Super Contributor

Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:AEG,GND

Im short AGL, I am convinced that this will tank as you can only go up on air for so long, once that balloon bursts it will come down and some..
0 Kudos
Reply
Super Contributor

Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:AEG,GND

So you are shorting the third biggest diversified miner, an in vogue stock at a 40% discount to NAV after some ferocious write-downs, offering counter-Rand properties and at a probable (near) bottom in the commodities market. AND with buyout speculation swirling... You are paying 10% odd per annum for your position to boot. Her price chart in her home (UK) market shows first proper resistance at R300 odd! You may well be right - but this is not my kind of trade.
0 Kudos
Reply
Highlighted
Super Contributor

Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:AEG,GND

He's also effectively shorting the opinions of Blackrock, Goldman and Deutsche Bank. Which is fine, if your time horizon is different to theirs. But they're not super dumb money so I'll go with them for now.
0 Kudos
Reply
Super Contributor

Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:AEG,GND

If this closes under R124...we going all the way down to R102.00.. Based on fundamentals this should be in the R80s.. It reported a 5 billion dollar loss.. No demand for its products.. Massive debt.. That's just my opinion.. Yes I made some money on a few long positions, but sentiment can only last so long.. I suspect its overdone.. I could be wrong..who knows..
0 Kudos
Reply
Super Contributor

Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:AEG,GND

I'd say "I wish you every success with that...' but I'm still long of quite a lot of this - so I won't and I don't! I'm sure you understand.
0 Kudos
Reply
Super Contributor

Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:AEG,GND

Where do you get your R80 call from? Which valuation method? You are aware that these assets are largely priced on probabilistic models for underlying commodity prices over their lifetimes ie. the underlying mines are valued on a simple discounted yield basis. Even after reducing the assets to largely reflect the underlying price expectations of 2 months ago (which were lower across the board) - the fundamental value was placed at over R200! Now granted you may require a higher yield (IRR) in your model since you have the option to buy other assets but... how do you come to R80?
0 Kudos
Reply
Super Contributor

Re:AEG,GND

As per Rams suggestion sold half yesterday on target and bought back this morning on a 15% dip, just trading the price don't give a damn about fundamentals!
0 Kudos
Reply
Super Contributor

Re:Re:AEG,GND

AND so it should be for a pure trader, I suppose. However - Hali - brought up fundamental valuations. BTW - From the highest single share that sold yesterday at R134,89 to the lowest that sold today (so far) at R125.89 - the difference is 7.9%
0 Kudos
Reply
Super Contributor

Re:AEG,GND

I am referring to KIO sold yesterday at 110 and picked up this morning at just under 95
0 Kudos
Reply
Super Contributor

Re:Re:AEG,GND

Aha - I nearly said nothing. Then my need to be pedantic kicked in! Too many years in auditing. Sorry!
0 Kudos
Reply
Super Contributor

Re:Re:Re:AEG,GND

Threshold when sentiment turns, remember I told you so, closed my short at R124.75.. The support of the 200 day moving average held, it should go retest it, once it breaks, I am short again :)
0 Kudos
Reply
Super Contributor

Re:Re:Re:Re:AEG,GND

Hali. I bought in at just over R50. I have dumped a lot. The 30 000 remaining have cost next to nothing. I will not sell. I'll buy more and trade those if they drop. There is no other way to make proper money. You need to give a position time. I've been doing this for years. All of this "in and outing" got me nowhere. This approach has made a lot over the years.
0 Kudos
Reply
Super Contributor

Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:AEG,GND

Of course sentiment will turn. BUT when? AND by how much? AND where will the 200DMA be at that point? Fortunately - I don't need to care and so I don't care.
0 Kudos
Reply
Cedric_1
Contributor

Re:AEG,GND

As a bottom picker is ACL worth a 'pinch or a pat" yat
0 Kudos
Reply