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18-04-2017 01:17 PM
Snap UK election for 8 June, May betting on weak poll numbers for Labour at the moment. But I think this may be a lot closer as it becomes a second vote on the Brexit issue and assuming the Tories campaign on leave if Labour and/or the Liberals can efectively campaign as remainers the result most likely a hung parliament.
Double confusing as the UK just triggered aticle 50!
For markets, Sterling likes so far and that's good for dual listed listed here and on the LSE. FTSE250 likely a big winner as it's been hurt post the leave vote as they more UK concentrated. FTSE100* was weak already this morning but has weakened further as the weak Sterling helped many of the large multi nationals listed on the LSE and in the FTSE100 (helped because weaker Sterling made their products cheaper in other makrets).
* I am long FTSE100 via DBXUK in my lazy trading system since early December 2016.
26-04-2017 11:00 AM
The chances of Labour and Liberals and the SNP ( idea just rejected) of combining to effect any upset at the polls is about as good as any RSA SOE winning World recognition
for efficiency and competent governance and management. IE no chance. Moreover there is no second vote on Brexit - Sorry Tony! - official or unofficial.
So here goes - banks - avoid , property.. distorted still- avoid or be very selective, services - oops Berlin here we come( this is the big item and there is lots of uncertainty) post the French shambles of an election.
But that said Macron will get in and the AFD will not get in in Germany. But all that said I am ALSO still long on the FTSE100
and I think that is all really based on a weak pound arising from - mostly uncertainty - this divorce will take 365x2 days minus 1 to finalise - and even then there will be lots
of areas of uncertainty. We Brits are in for a huge dissapointment . But that is just a repeat of history.