I'm not sure of the value of quaterly updates? Did we really learn anythign note worthy in these inbetween updates? We still get interim and final? Frequent updates (such as US quarterly reporting) runs the risk of skewing management to the next three months when as CCO says what we really want is long-term resuts?
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Many traders will trade multiple strategies or the same strategy across different time frames and this can result in opposing trades in the same instrument. In other words, being long in one strategy or time frame and then short in another strategy or time frame. The question is, how do we deal with it? From my experience this is not really an issue if trading equity but happens a lot in ALSI, FX and commodity trading. I trade three ALSI future strategies and here’s how I deal with it. The strategies are;
7 / 21
The first point is to work out which is the primary strategy. That will either be the most profitable or longer trade duration strategy and for me that’s the 7/21 system. This gives a fair number of trades every month and trade duration can be a couple of days to even a week or more. The other two strategies are very much shorter term usually a couple of hours at most and are intra-day strategies in that I do not hold positions over night with them. Further, they are less frequent, so the 7/21 is the dominant strategy. For me the process is simple.
If I am in a 7/21 position I ignore any signals from the other two strategies.
But if I am not in a 7/21 trade then I will take trades form the other strategies.
If I am in a shorter gap or engulfing trade and a 7/21 trade confirms I will exit the shorter trade and enter the 7/21 trade.
In other words, the 7/21 is the top priority strategy and while I trade three strategies I only have one strategy trade open at any one time.
An alternative is to trade each system in a separate account but for me this has a few draw backs. Firstly, it will mean that when I am in two strategies at once I am either long and short (neutral) and this means I am doubling up on costs, spreads and potential slippage but with zero profit potential. Secondly all three may fire long or short trades and then I am very long/short with three open positions and that has markedly increased my exposure and hence my risk. Thirdly it means having three funded accounts with sufficient cash for margin and draw downs, so more cash needed to trade the systems. I don’t see the benefits of separate accounts for the three strategies so I stick with one trading account for my ALSI trading three strategies but prioritising the 7/21 system.
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I read that as well, not sure how high they mean when they say 'high interest'? Surely just money market? You can get that with a tax-free call account via a bank or the NFTRCI ETF from ABSA. this is a three month rolling money market?
But some thoughts, only really for retirees? And right now you get a tax-free on interest earned (+r20k or interest tax-free) so not sure the appeal, unless they plan to either do away with tax-free on interest or stop increasing the limit so as too make it useless?
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Disclaimers first. I am more than 10 years from retirement hence a high-risk portfolio and this is what I have bought and balanced the values when I added the new R33k this tax year.
Global emerged market exposure nice and simple. One could go with the S&P500 ETF, geographies are the same but in DBXWD financials are the largest sector while in the S&P500 IT is the largest. Which will be better? I have no idea nor do I care to try and guess but I have been buying DBXWD for years and am happy with it.
The Top40 equal weight ETF. I will always take equal weight over market cap weighting as it reduces the large stocks exposure (in Top40 right now the top 7 stocks are over 50% of the index).
Always some property as a different asset class with decent yields and this one is top ten equal weighted. One could also use the new Satrix Property (STXPRO) which tracks the S&P SA Composite Property Capped Index and caps the stocks at 10%. Alternatively the offshore GLPROP (DBXWD has some 5% in global property).
What's in your tax-free account?
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I am a huge podcast fan, it’s like PVR for radio and lets me listen to what I want when I want. So, I thought I’d put together a list of my favourite investing / trading podcasts. The Money Show with Bruce Whitfield Top of the list surely? You can listen every night on 702 or Cape Talk or grab the podcast the next morning and listen at our leisure. My issue is that you can only subscribe via iTunes or listen via the web. Freakonomics From the award winning book, wide ranging topics that aren’t always about money or even economics, but always great fun and incredibly well produced. DH unplugged A sometimes rambling usually jaundiced look at what’s happening in markets. The Disciplined Investor A great weekly interview with leading names and often very technical and sometimes a bit off the wall. Trend Following with Michael Covel Less about trend following, more about psychology with wide ranging guests that always finds itself back to trading. Motley Fool Money Weekly US market wrap that in 38 minutes keeps me up to speed with what’s happening in the US markets. Planet Money Produced by NPR an eclectic mix of topics from literally buying a barrel of oil to the avocado trade. Motley Fool Answers Money, retirement, saving. All the simple but important with a strong US slant that is not always relevant to our situation but always fun and a little off the wall at times. Odd Lots Produced by Bloomberg and hosted by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway. Very money / investing focused with a great theme and guest every week (such as negiotating a ransom and poker as an anology for passive vs. active investing ). Masters in Business Great interviews by Barry Ritholtz with leading names in the investing world. Always a fascinating listen. Finally, I am directly involved in two podcasts. One I host, JSE Direct, and the other I guest, The Fat Wallet Show.
What would you add to the list? Comment below?
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ah, I see the trick. Not sure. Firstly depends on if it income of capital in nature. The limit is 27.5% or R350k, whichever smaller. I would think that it you use those figures on salary not investment you safe But if you want to include investments as income, than yip I also no idea.
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The annual Berkshire Hathaway annual report written by Warren Buffett was released this past weekend, you can find it here. The annual general meeting is on 6 May and is being webcast here. Below are some of my highlight points from the letter to shareholders.
Over time, stock prices gravitate toward intrinsic value. (page 3) This is a great yet totally simple point that long-term investor need to remember. If we hold quality companies, the share prices will do all sorts of things over the short term. But long-term they will gravitate towards intrinsic value giving the shareholder price uplift. So, ignore short term price moves and focus on the long-term growth of profits.
Share Repurchases (page 7) In the investment world, discussions about share repurchases often become heated. But I’d suggest that participants in this debate take a deep breath: Assessing the desirability of repurchases isn’t that complicated. From the standpoint of existing shareholders, repurchases are always a plus. Though the day-to-day impact of these purchases is usually minuscule, it’s always better for a seller to have an additional buyer in the market. For continuing shareholders, however, repurchases only make sense if the shares are bought at a price below intrinsic value. When that rule is followed, the remaining shares experience an immediate gain in intrinsic value. It is puzzling, therefore, that corporate repurchase announcements almost never refer to a price above which repurchases will be eschewed. That certainly wouldn’t be the case if a management was buying an outside business. There, price would always factor into a buy-or-pass decision. I suspect that with the local Dividend Withholding Tax (DWT) having been increased to 20% in the last budget we may start to see more share buyback programs. This is fine as long as there are details about the prices to be paid.
“The Bet” (or how your money finds its way to Wall Street) (page 21) Subsequently, I publicly offered to wager $500,000 that no investment pro could select a set of at least five hedge funds – wildly-popular and high-fee investing vehicles – that would over an extended period match the performance of an unmanaged S&P-500 index fund charging only token fees. I suggested a ten-year bet and named a low-cost Vanguard S&P fund (VOO) as my contender. With a year to go in the bet the hedge Funds is 2.2% vs. 7.1% for the VOO. Adding to this, most of us here are active investors holding individual shares. That said we should still have a core portfolio of Exchange Traded Funds to protect us from ourselves. We invest because we’re confident we can beat the market, but some core ETFs are an insurance policy in case we fail.
Last point is page 19 has their top holdings with Apple a new entry (holding 1.1% of the company) and a number of airlines.
Some of the stocks in the table are the responsibility of either Todd Combs or Ted Weschler, who work with me in managing Berkshire’s investments. Each, independently, manages more than $10 billion; I usually learn about decisions they have made by looking at monthly trade sheets.
One of Todd or Ted is the likley successor to Buffett when he steps down one day.
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Last week the share price of Murray & Roberts (MUR) jumped higher with almost 22% of the company issued shares changing hands on the day at prices some 30% above the previous close.
Two question were raised; who were the sellers and who was the buyer?
SENS announcements since then tell us that Coronation, Allan Gray and Sanlam Investment Managers were the sellers with Coronation selling their entire 15% stake in the company. Allan Gray sold about 7% (now holding just over 15%) and Sanlam Investment Managers selling around half a percent and now holding just under 5%.
The last SENS was the announcement of the buyer, ATM Holding GmbH, Munich who now hold 25.4553% of MUR.
This raises a third question, what do the new majority shareholders in MUR plan to do with their stake?
A 25% stake does make them the largest shareholder but it is not a controlling stake. Are the new buyers going to be happy to sit at 25%? Legally they are not required to do anything and can claim their board seats and just be a significant shareholder.
Another option is an offer to buy out some or all the remaining 75% of the shares they do not own? On the surface this would make the most sense to me, perhaps even delisting MUR in the process.
But that would require support of existing shareholders with Allan Gray, the Government Employees Pension Fund, PIC and Sanlam holding almost half of the total shares in issue.
The new buyers would need significant support amongst this group to get enough votes and one would have to wonder why Allan Gray and Sanlam didn’t sell their entire stakes if this was the plan. That would have given ATM some 45% of the company. Importantly having crossed the 35% shareholding they would be required to make a mandatory offer to all minorities. This would make sense if the goal was to acquire control and perhaps delist MUR.
At the end of the day it looks like the end game here may just be as majority shareholder in MUR. ATM may change their mind in time. But for now, I’m not sure why they wouldn’t have got control by buying more from Allan Gray and Sanlam in the first place if that was their aim, if the two rejected selling a larger stake that tells the buyer that they’ll struggle to get control.
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They couldn't agree on a price (share swap ratio) so the deal is cancelled and both shares are now up almost 8%.
As a long-term SHP shareholder I am happy, sure a merger wold've created a giant African retailer, but I own SHP for a giant African food retailer and if SHN wants my shares they must pay up. Something that seemingly they won't do.
Further if I want non-food African retail I can buy SHN.
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Two attractions for fishing stocks. Firstly, a great source of protein so very popular, and secondly costs are tied to the oil price as diesel is the big cost. So, lower oil prices and a stronger rand is good for the industry. Inversely higher oil or weaker rand increases diesel costs. Late last year we got the news that Premier Fishing would be listing on the JSE in February and I was keen to get into the IPO, if possible. With news that it was being priced at 450c I was certainly interested. Not so much as a long-term investment but definitely as a spec buy with the intention of selling shortly post listing. But now we have Sea Harvest coming to market in March and that may well take some of the shine off the Premier Fishing listing as investors now have two option for a new fishing stock and some of the Premier Fishing excitement will instead flow into Sea Harvest diluting the Premier listing. This also brings into play a third option, Oceana. They’ve been listed for an age and I like the stock but they always seemed overpriced. However, the new fishing stocks listing may see some money flowing out of Oceana into Premier Fishing and Sea Harvest finally creating some value in Oceana. The concern over Oceana right now is the 2015 Daybrook Fisheries acquisition in the USA and while it was a great deal the stronger Rand will be hurting earnings and this would mean a lower valuation for Oceana is to be expected, even without the new listings. Bottom line I am waiting to see final listing details for the two new entrants and if we’re going to be offered any stock on listing (keep an eye under special announcements as you log into OST for details). Both are likely to be private placements rather than IPOs meaning not everybody is offered a chance to get involved and the company can then allocate as they see fit so even if we get the chance to apply we may not get any stock.
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So as a holder of TON for the rains that are returning I been digging on these worms. Loclly we have Fall Armyworm but all inidcations is that it has been caught quick enough and poisons are avaliable to kill them off. So there will be some spots of damage but mostly the improved crops expected this season seem safe.
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the refs are interesting coz you getting cash at serious discount, but you may never see that discout close and lots of ways to lock mess with pref holders es as they non everything .. easiest is to pay pref div then pay ords a special div with all extra cash
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