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12 sessions/7 gaps filled 100%

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Not applicable
during the past 12 sessions we have had 7 gaps ...all which have been filled....todays nice short opportunity being the most recent. If you are not taking notice of the gap play opportunities you are not picking up the money lying in front of your feet....with gaps almost daily like this conventional TA is worthless...which is why the SFM TA people are having such a bad time of it...you cannot cannot ignore gaps...
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33 REPLIES 33
Not applicable
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Not applicable
when the session opens higher or lower than the previous day..anything more than 70 pts or so is highly significant for me. These plays have a 70 - 80 probability....so far of the 11 gaps we have been watching since the video 100% have closed the gap...
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Not applicable
Simon and others have said gap plays are too much work....in a market like we have at the moment you gotta do a bit of work....during the past month if you were long the alsi you would have made R zero if you were short you would have made R zero we are exactly where we started a month ago.....had you just played the gaps you would have been able to trade at least 1000 pts either way which on a R 15 000 futures contract would be a profit of R 10 000 for very little risk....
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Not applicable
..mm..think you right on the money, in spite of me bad mouthin last week. Market is like a leaf in the wind, and I aint just quoting a bad song here. Catching a trend is pretty darned difficult right now. I've done pretty well off individual stocks, but flatlined on the topi. Could be gap trading would fill a useful niche - well done, dude.
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Tango
Super Contributor
I agree, and another reason why one should avoid the opening.. most days, if you had bought the opening on a gap up or sold it on a gap down you would have taken a beating of a few hundred points. I haven't had the bottle to play the gaps, but I've been waiting for them to close before re-entering.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
Chartist, course you can ignore them - depends entirely on ones time frame, strategy, etc. Hence my comment of earlier, that I do ignore them as it was too much like hard work. You have to be in front of the PC in the morning, time your entry spot on and then exit perfectly. All requires screen gazing when I would rather be beach gazing and further the discipline is of a level that most do not have.

An you comment that being long for July would have netted nothing while gap trading made 66%, not true. I entered a long on Top40 beginning of July and as I write am up 40%, with the only effort being a simple entry some 3 weeks ago. Hence my above comment about effort required. Not saying gaps don't make money, point is there are a million ways to make money in the market. Each to their own?

An with utmost respect you're sounding like you've found the holy grail - which you know (as well as any trader) does not exist.
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Not applicable
there is no holy grail and I would be the first one to take issue with anyone who claims there is....I geuss I push this issue so hard because so little notice is generally taken of it....it remains a market phenomenon which has the highest probability of occurring provided the parameters are met.....for me however an understanding of gap plays was a lightbulb moment....not because of the play itself but because it gave me an insight into whats happening on the other side of the trade...i.e....who's hurting....if you can find out whos hurting in any market situation you can trade from a position and strength and profit from the rushed impulse/fear decisions of other traders.....
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CHATTYCHAT
Super Contributor
Suppose that's why one forumite commented that it is a good thing to study a bit psycholgy while in effort to become a good trader?
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
ya, I remember being told by a grizzled old trader to find the okes in pain and hence find easy money.

CC, trading is all about psychology. More then any novice and even some pros realize.
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john_1
Super Contributor
My guess Simon If you looking for whos hurting, I think you may find a few Bears feeling a little shell shocked today>
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
John, I was wondering this weekend - where have all the bears gone? Every trading forum always has a few bears flirting around, especially when the bulls are raging. Yet we've had nothing for ages. Makes me wonder if the bears haven't given in, and you know that logic. When the last bear turns bullish, time to sell!
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john_1
Super Contributor
Tis to true. and this when we have had a couple of down days. Good point Simon,
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Not applicable
..Roadkill. Had ta scrape a bear outa me grill this mornin..
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john_1
Super Contributor
I think you takin the pet mince thing a little to serriously.
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Not applicable
I am feeling a bit bearish....usually do around this time of the day nowadays.....
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Hibiscus
Regular Contributor
Bull mince for my Bear pet!!??
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Not applicable
trendline broken on futures and we have just rallied up to it again and we should turn around from there...
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
nah chartist, that doesn't count. We want the end time vision people, those telling us that the Topi will be back at around 10k before spring ...
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Not applicable
yes...the paucity of prophets of doom is unsettling...
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