1969

[#1]

For what it's worth - I was a floor trader (dealer) on the JSE from 1967 to 1976. We saw a massive boom and bust in 1969. There was a bounce but then prices settled at VERY low levels. e.g. SAB was below 100c - albeit after a split. Prices generally (of non-mining shares) took some 10 years to recover. But the main problem for 4 or 5 years was the lack of trade. In April/May 1969 I could effect hundreds of trades in a day. In 1974 that had fallen to maybe 20 trades in a day and price movements were tiny. It's a bit different now. The contractual savings industry was in its infancy then: it's huge now. There were no SSFs, Warrants, CFDs etc. etc. then. Communication with the world was still very slow: now it's instantaneous. There were very few "day traders" operating on the JSE. And other differences - many of which have contributed to the speed and extent of recent declines. But what hasn't changed is human nature. When confidence is damaged it takes time to be restored: the greater the damage, the longer the recovery. And the damage globally is huge right now.

[john_1]

great post...nice to know you have lived a breathed in the snake pit..

[saash]

Sea Pea ... lol! You've lived a good life. Thanks for sharing.

[Brazen]

Cool post Seapea. Hope the first of many. And you're still trading.

[G_V_V]

The DOW is lower now than it was 10 years ago and some of the JSE shares are also lower now than they were 10 years ago. On average since 1960 the Dow the FTSE and the JSE has grown about 4.5% compounded yearly. The JSE has grown 12% compounded yearly but you need to subtract the 7% odd compounded fall in the rand to bring it to 4.5%. In 1989 the Nikkei was 32000 and today it is about 7600. I don't think the markets are overheated at all if you ask my humble opinion, they are just plain ignorant. Markets are always over exaggerating the ups and downs because there is no single skipper keeping the economical ship on an even keel short term, but long term it skippers itself.

[#6]

Seapea how old are you?

[#7]

Thanks for the encouraging responses. I'll be 70 next year and am retired. After my stint on the JSE I went on to other things. I joined this site in the hope of learning about, and doing, some short-term trading. My very first attempt was a disaster; I broke all the rules (including a couple that I had set for myself) and lost half of the amount invested! At least I took the loss since I would have lost half again if I'd hung on. But I enjoy learning from all you traders. I've purchased and read some of the books recommended and feel better prepared to make another attempt sometime. But I'm naturally more cautious now.

[BRE]

10 years to recover! **** no!

[am_1]

Great post Seapea. May you have the broadband and stomach to continue trading for many more decades.