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2010 Crystal Ball

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Super Contributor
In the opinion of the forum. Have we really seen the worst of the recession? Will we see no/minor/mayor recovery next year? Which sectors and which shares in that sector? Have we started with a new commodity supercycle?
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Super Contributor
IMHO - I dont think the worst is over, and I am not a bear fan. Locally we still need to see the effect of the job losses this year, into next year. Europe is still in ***** - or so all the market commentators say. Everyone (and everyone could be wrong) seems to be saying that the marked will move sideways for a while, although the last month or two has been good. Maybe due for a small correction. We need the V.O.R. to add his wisdom here.
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Regular Contributor
If we follow the Dow, and we usually do... We are in for a further fall in the market. imo the talk about "green shoots" and a "jobless recovery" is plain ridiculous, like pulling yourself out of a hole by your own boot straps. . a ridiculous attempt to "talk the market up"
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Valued Contributor
so you say the worse is not over .. in other words what you are saying is that we will see worse events then what we saw last year around Sep/Oct ?? in other words you expect some large banks to go under etc. ??
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Not applicable
Come on Simon, where the "trade the price - everything elese is just noise" .....;-)

My 2c worth, we are in for a tougher 2010 but no more so than where we are now. Some bearish sectors are retail, building, mining (even if we are seeing higher mineral prices), and Auto plus related sectors. Good stocks will be consumer driven ssentials, SAB, BAT, SBK, Tigerbrands, PP, Shopright etc. Insurance could also do well in the financials as people feel they need to keep up the life investments, kinds education funds etc.

But we are going to see some retracement and some rallies but ultimately a flatish direction. Doubt we will see the 18,000 mark on ALSI again but 22,000 or 23,000 maybe...IMO
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Valued Contributor
nah boet .. I trade the price .. but that doesn't stop me having views .. just that my views and or thinking never interfer with my trading ..
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Super Contributor
That's not possible. Have you ever sold too early ? If you have, then that statement is null and void.
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Valued Contributor
why is that not possible ?? it is how I trade, 100% off a mechanical chart system(s) .. my thinking has nothing to do with my trading .. to my mind it is frankly the only way to trade successfully, hence my repeated statement of trade the price ..
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Super Contributor
What is your exit strategy, and have you honestly never sold early because of an expectation rather than a mechanical fact ?
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Valued Contributor
since I started trading my new system in jan 2005 I have sold early once .. and that was because I was going on holiday for a month, so exited the morning I flew ..
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Not applicable
the recession has'nt even started yet....hold on to ur bootstraps cause the *****....she cometh in a big way to a theatre near u....very very soon.....and I mean worldwide!
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Super Contributor
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Valued Contributor
took me 8 years to get there .. but I really only trade on price ..
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Valued Contributor
dinen .. recession and end of the world are different things ..
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Super Contributor
I think economically we could be in for worse, because some aspects are getting worse out there and the Fed is running out of bullets, and congress are taking away some of their bullets. But the market could well stay above the lows because there isn't mark-to-market anymore. So worse economy, but we've seen the worst of the stock market. Probably.
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Valued Contributor
an while we are gazing and bot trading .. worst is behind us, but recovery will be very slow and stock market has got ahead of itself so upside likely to be muted ..
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Regular Contributor
Although not nearly as eloquent as Dinen, I support his view. It should be interesting to haul this thread out for review in a year's time.
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Not applicable
DOne, I told my system to recall this file ( I saved it locally) on 20 Nov 2010....lets see what happens
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Super Contributor
Simon I just saw a report - not verified - that said around 1.5 billion was spent during the Lions tour here this year. With that in mind do you think the World Cup next year will have a serious long term impact, or have the effects been priced in already?
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Contributor
The market runs ahead of the economy by about 6 to 12 months. The economy should be in the plus by then and most companies should have recovered.OMO
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