well, I have taken a punt on MUR. My rationale is that something like 80% of their operating profit comes from offshore revenue these days, so you get the SA doldrums practically for free - and you have an exchange rate boost to the stock. Stocks pegged to the SA economy are due for offload - with a sluggish economy, and inflationary pressures thanks to Eskom, etolls, exchange rate (and oil price) must certainly provide a catalyst for a rates hike. So banks, furniture retail, branded foods, and maybe even the fast food guys are all likely to under-perform. Just my 2c worth
Look at small and micro-caps with property exposure in excess of their market cap. This might prove difficult since they play games and effectively carry their assets unadjusted for years at a stretch. With the rand weakness (set to get worse,) the hedge value of property will come to the fore. The high net worth "owners" of these companies will look to take their assets private and buy out minorities; thereby maximising their returns.
you never can tell with currency. Resources are suddenly competitive again, exporters smiling, offshore listed companies wallowing in extra cash and all of a sudden our stock market gets interesting to foreigners who will find bluechip stocks at an even bigger discount because of a weak currency. So capital flows back in, rand strengthens, and all those astute foreigners have the double benefit of a stock's profits, plus the foreign exchange windfall. Pretty low risk stuff for foreign funds to climb into our markets now, IMO
No thanks. Indusrty in cripple. Legislation is lousy. Personal borrowing is at record levels. The upside... 20% cyclical strength but the downside - a blowOUT! With idiots saying things like "the ANC will rule until Jesus comes," I fear the downside is the high probabaility play.
That is your perogative, of course. All of the forumites are already invested in SA Inc. - we have property here, SA businesses, shares in local companies... If that isn't enough?... Anyway - this is HIGHLY "actionable" - I am saying "Invest offshore. Limit your Rand exposure." Investment is about probability - hell, life is about chance. All we can do is try to stack the odds in our favour. From an empirical point of view, we need look no further than the exchange rate or the balance of payments deficit for verification of this position. Contrarianism should be based on rational deliberation otherwise it descends into defiant oppositionalism.
Last year there were predictions by Wayne |Mccurrie , Byron Lotter and a few otheres. Have these been reviewed now that the year is up anywhere on the net? These are 4 that were picked by one of them... ADT, OLG, SNV, SEP