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Online Share Trading

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2014 predictions

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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
Marc Ashton (FinWeek), Keith Mclachlan (Thebe Stock Brokering) and myself each give 5 predictions for 2014. Small caps to double, gold, plat, Cac40, US/EU, Rand, construction, retail and more .. Listen at http://www.maudestreet.com/maude-street-online/jsedirect-131-2014-predictions-show.html
and put your here, we're going to review them all at the end of the year ..
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16 REPLIES 16
Not applicable
well, I have taken a punt on MUR. My rationale is that something like 80% of their operating profit comes from offshore revenue these days, so you get the SA doldrums practically for free - and you have an exchange rate boost to the stock. Stocks pegged to the SA economy are due for offload - with a sluggish economy, and inflationary pressures thanks to Eskom, etolls, exchange rate (and oil price) must certainly provide a catalyst for a rates hike. So banks, furniture retail, branded foods, and maybe even the fast food guys are all likely to under-perform. Just my 2c worth
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stores
Super Contributor
Hi Simon...I enjoyed the pod cast thanks..Please can you tell me a short cut way to get a 1 to 3 year exposure on Bidcoin (i.e.not trading it)...Tried to google but the sites I got did not help much.
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
Look at small and micro-caps with property exposure in excess of their market cap. This might prove difficult since they play games and effectively carry their assets unadjusted for years at a stretch. With the rand weakness (set to get worse,) the hedge value of property will come to the fore. The high net worth "owners" of these companies will look to take their assets private and buy out minorities; thereby maximising their returns.
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
Barring complete capitulation of the Rand that is. In that case - all bets are off. The safe play is still to get your money out of Rand denominated assets.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
you have to buy them, mtgox.com
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Rams
Super Contributor
so , rand to what level?
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
Well... who knows. BUT - we have a balance of payments deficit that continues to expand and so - quite simply - there is no bottom. There has to be a change in structure. The rand is bankrupt.
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koos2
Super Contributor
Interesting, thus inflation and maybe higher rates. How do you propose to combat all of this eating into my capital? Do i buy offshore (like yesterday) or just stay the course and bunker down?
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Not applicable
you never can tell with currency. Resources are suddenly competitive again, exporters smiling, offshore listed companies wallowing in extra cash and all of a sudden our stock market gets interesting to foreigners who will find bluechip stocks at an even bigger discount because of a weak currency. So capital flows back in, rand strengthens, and all those astute foreigners have the double benefit of a stock's profits, plus the foreign exchange windfall. Pretty low risk stuff for foreign funds to climb into our markets now, IMO
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
No thanks. Indusrty in cripple. Legislation is lousy. Personal borrowing is at record levels. The upside... 20% cyclical strength but the downside - a blowOUT! With idiots saying things like "the ANC will rule until Jesus comes," I fear the downside is the high probabaility play.
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koos2
Super Contributor
Sorry, i just dont find this reply actionable or helpfull. When people say everything is going to hell in a hand-basket i cannot help but feel the ich to buy what they are selling..
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
That is your perogative, of course. All of the forumites are already invested in SA Inc. - we have property here, SA businesses, shares in local companies... If that isn't enough?... Anyway - this is HIGHLY "actionable" - I am saying "Invest offshore. Limit your Rand exposure." Investment is about probability - hell, life is about chance. All we can do is try to stack the odds in our favour. From an empirical point of view, we need look no further than the exchange rate or the balance of payments deficit for verification of this position. Contrarianism should be based on rational deliberation otherwise it descends into defiant oppositionalism.
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koos2
Super Contributor
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Creature_of_the
Super Contributor
Last year there were predictions by Wayne |Mccurrie , Byron Lotter and a few otheres. Have these been reviewed now that the year is up anywhere on the net? These are 4 that were picked by one of them... ADT, OLG, SNV, SEP
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
mostly they never get reviewed .. that's what we plan to do different
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Creature_of_the
Super Contributor
Good on u Simon...keep up your great shows.
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