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ABUZZ and imuniti

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rendan
Contributor
Hi Abuzz. U seem awefully sure abt this share... And when u say 100 000 units, u must remember that that is their capacity.. Ive been looking for a punt but this share looks really dodge.. What happens if no1 buys the backs? this whole cosatu thing is a little murky too... The best place to look is what the ceo said in the past and and what actually happened.. the record is not good. he said the share would do well and it DEFINITELY didnt.. hes doing the same thing now and so r u.. He sounds more like a marketing man trying to sell his view instead of giving honest opinions.....
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23 REPLIES 23
duke_vest
Frequent Contributor
there are probably a number of you boffins out there thinking out a million reasons why immuniti should fail. i however would like to think differently. immuniti hasn't yet proven to be the titanic, because i don't see the gaping holes, however there have been some stormy seas. look at why the share prices have dropped so drastically over the last few months, and if you read one of my previous inserts, you will see why they have taken a knock and why they are still a decent share to consider investing in. i am no numbers geek, but the PE rating has come down significantly and the dividends yield has gone up somewhat in relation to the share's performance. i suppose the only way to prove this is a turnaround share is to sit it out and wait. i am also not in this share for the quick buck, but the long term haul back to R1,50's. Then all those who were "uhming and ahhhing" would have missed the bus.
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Not applicable
I tend to agree with Rendan, the CEO should stop talking about performing and actually perform
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Not applicable
Ive bought 3000 so hoping ur wrong
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Not applicable
Yes - hope ur right i just bought 3000
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CE
Super Contributor
Last of the big spenders bro ?
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ABuzz
Super Contributor
Hi rendan. Yes, I am confident in this share and I do see it performing well over the medium to longer term. Some things to consider when looking at this share: (1) this share was priced too high when it listed, hence the rapid decline to a more realistic and market related price. (2) The shares of the BEE partner are being held in trust subject to them achieving the required sales volume targets of the Imuniti Packs, i.e. 100 000 packs per month - subsequently they have everything to gain by making sure that the 100 000 unit target is met, otherwise the shares revert back to the company. (3) Their maiden results for 14 months to the end of Feb 2007 reflected a R 63 million revenue and R 500k net profit. (4) The next results are expected to show a revenue of R 101 million, which is a substantial % up on previous - additionally so, because it will be for a 12 month period only. (5) This share is very tightly held, only about 150 shareholders (according to Business Report), so is reasonably liquid relatively speaking when one looks at the fluidity over the past couple of weeks. (6) The packs are likely to produce R 18 million per month at the 100 000 units sales target - this is small money in relation to what the SA Government and other outside players and countries are spending on HIV & AIDS wellness issues. (7) The R 101 million revenue for the year ending Feb 2008 excludes the pack sales, so even if they achieved 50% of the volume for the last 3 months of the financial year, it would still add a healthy R 27 million to the revenue for the year - remembering that the BEE shareholders have until Dec 2007 to get the orders in. All said, I definitely view this one as one to watch over the next 6 - 18 months and see it at over R 1,50 by Dec 2008 - which is a nice growth by anyone's measure from the current price of 25 cents. I'm nicely stocked up and I'm holding.
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ABuzz
Super Contributor
Plus, they are under cautionary at the moment and don't forget they are supposed to be introducing new brands, so maybe it is an acquisition? OMO
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duke_vest
Frequent Contributor
thank you Abuzz. somebody speaking sense for a change. now why can't the rest pick up on the sentiment. i suppose they are getting deals on other shares at the moment. yeah right, i think not. look at what the rest of the bloody market is getting up to.
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rendan
Contributor
Ok Duke vest... ur attitude seems a little illogical and a little too upfront... Ur trying to make other people buy jst cos u have so many of these shares.. I always say that people who own certain shares are never objective about that share cos they are emotionally attached. Abuzz i understand what your saying and ur reasoning has some value.. im not doubting that. BUT still there are SOOOOOOOO many assumptions you are making.. 100 000 is max capacity and no doubt they will strive towards achieving it but what happens if no1 buys these packs?? And its not like these packs cure aids, they provide good nutrition.. When are these packs coming out on the shelves?? exact date?
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ABuzz
Super Contributor
Yes rendan, these packs don't cure AIDS (if they did then this share would really be flying!), however I work with a number of NGOs and other organisations who are closely involved with the HIV & AIDS battle and recent research has shown that good nutrition is going a long way to prolong life expectancy. Until there's a cure, nutrition is part of the solution. And yes, your point is very valid regarding 100 000 units being maximum capacity, but even if they were to produce 80% of their capacity it would still add very positively to the revenue and in turn the share price.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
How much are these packs going to retail for? What's in them? Who has authenticated them? USAID, WHO, DoH ???
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
and why did they pull out of the AltX meet the CEO's?
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ABuzz
Super Contributor
They will retail for between R 220 and R250. Once the current trials are proved successful all the necessary organisations will approve them based on this approval by the MRC.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
is the pack good for one month? Then the Q is how does that price compare to other health offers? An what are the trials? Are these medicine? Then still a stamp from USAID or HO would certainly make a big help.
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ABuzz
Super Contributor
Yes, it is a months worth. It comprises various natural remedies, vitamins and water purification tablets. The WHO and others have all acknowledged the part nutrition plays in the fight against AIDS. Previously the market has had isolated products eg Flax Oil which have had some good results, but noone to date has done the comprehensive trials being carried out by Imuniti currently. There's is a total nutrition solution with various researched products combined into one pack.
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rendan
Contributor
Abuzz, pls tell me wen these packs will be available for retail purchasing? Cos until then i dont think this share price will move out of the 23-28c range....This share may well be worth a punt, BUT it needs to be an educated punt. People said the share looked cheap at 40. Then they said it was cheap at 30. now its gone to 25... And with a P.E. of 54, theres no reason y it wont go down to 12/15c. Im really sorry if come accross as being pessimistic or rude, but im not. I jst want to know more abt this opportunity like every1 else.
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ABuzz
Super Contributor
Hey rendan - I call it caution and there's nothing wrong with that in the share market. Yes, caution might cost you a bit in the short term, but it will often save you a whack in the long term. According to the Business Report, Paul Fouche, the CEO, is reported as saying they are going to start distributing them into pharmacies from next week - didn't say which day, but it is imminent. If you want to be cautious, wait till they start their upward trend and then get in - there's still a lot of upside to be had on this one in the next year or two.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
OK, now I am confused. If this product includes water purification tablets it is being aimed at the poor and rural? But they don't shop in pharmacies?
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bruno_1
Occasional Contributor
Sounds more like I-muti to me, I'm sure a former health minister that we all loved could give some valuble input as to which veggies to include as well.
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