AFRICAN HOO-HA

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Flavour of the month it seems. With any luck there will be a swing toward African growth stories by foreign (American?) investors and this will revive interest in JDG, CPI, general retailers and their ilk.

[kwagga]

On a different note - If you had to make a pick between PGL and ESR, what would it be. ESR - excellent trading statement. PGL - Beaten and battered to a point that it starting to look attractive again.

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Funnily enough - I have chipped in my "two cents worth" on discussions re both of these shares in the past. I can't say my opinion was warmly received. I don't like the sectors they are in. Add to this the fact that they are micro-caps in fields that require vast amounts of capital to survive the cycles (let alone grow.) Since I last looked at them - they have both churned out volumes of extra shares to survive. They have burnt through cash and then more cash. They have gone from worse to shocking. These companies tend to sell off anything of value in order to survive and keep the directors asses in their well-paying board seats. In short, not for me!

[kwagga]

I can't argue with that answer. Thanks.

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That said - I would take ESR any day over PGL. It is a normal operation in pursuit of profits - it can produce profits in a good market. PGL - well - a dreamers stock really...

[kwagga]

Timing is of essence with these cyclical sectors. The darlings of the mega bulls runs are usually the dogs of the recovery after the crash for many years. During that period they create value traps many punters as well as investors gets entangled in.

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BUT remember - it's a game of chance ie. you need to back a spread of likely looking candidates to catch 1 or 2 good ones; AND many of them will go belly-up. That is why the rewards are so huge on the "good ones." By the time you are finished - your net probable return may be no higher than that achievable by backing low(er) risk quality companies. Small and micro-caps should be bought by thise with deep pockets, based on extensive research and with a through-the-cycles outlook.

[kwagga]

FGL is a case in point. The problem here is that it's sometimes such a once off event that you need to sell out as an investor as soon as speculators gets hold of the share and imminent collapse is inevitable.

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Still risk/reward though - at 7 to 11 cents - I took what I could lay my hands on. I pointed this share out to the forum - the forumites made their contempt for this stock clear. Now that it has run and I am rid of mine - I could only watch in endless amazement as others extolled the merits of this thing at R1,50. Anyway - this is a very different company to ESR or PGL - it has extensive real assets - huge internal (operational) leverage and access to capital with a dedicated mechanism to achieve the desIred ROE.

[redridinghood]

You are certainly an astute investor and this forum is eternally grateful for your superior insights which you so freely and modestly share with the rest of us plonkers..now if only I followed your genius and also invested boat loads in GIJ above 50cps...oh, and remember BEG? But fortunately I did fill my boots in SGL above 1000cps and JDG at 3500cps...NOT.

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BEG was at 4-5c and obviously - I was right - LION tried to buy them out at twice that. Made about 200% on mine and will go probably back in at 4-5c. GIJ was a nicely profitable little spec; and I said I didn't like the company (LEARN to read.) The date of the posts from 27 OCT to 7 Nov gave me a 35% profit. I assume you would have the brains to get out once the scandal bubbled over. JDG - started buying at around R35 (less R1,15 dividend) and still accumulating. I am glad you know where the bottom is - perhaps you could share the secret to that divine trick with the rest of us sometime. SGL - well I was right about the earnings - bought some more - if the thing shows any more weakness I 'll consider cutting the blood loss. GOLD shares are for trading and I have always said I am a rotten trader. ANYWAY - I have had plenty of losers - I cut them when they no longer make sense. That is why I have learned what to avoid. You, on the other hand, must go and seek advice from some virgin source that has learned without ever losing a penny. Best of luck with that.

[kwagga]

So you didn't make up your own mind about your purchases, but followed 100% the advice of someone on this forum group? Now that you made some losses, you can comfortably sit back and assume no responsibility for your actions. How convenient....

[redridinghood]

Ah, there's the dodgy accounting again - 200% you say? So when exactly did BEG trade between 12 and 15cps? You must also learn to read, never said I bought the GIJ story and by the time the scandal broke the share price was long wrecked...obviously you sold prior to the meltdown given your superior analytical skills. Some modesty will do you wonders and may even make you a more pleasant character...and do mind the blood pressure!

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BEG:- 4 to 10 and then 8 to 10 after the textbook pullback from the SENS lead runup = more than 200% Lucky? Yeah a bit - so what? GIJ: Nonsense! The scandal was a year long rolling affair that needed to be monitored. The "you" referred to the investor that should have the sense to monitor his investment nd not you in particular. As for the "pleasantness" of my posts - at least they add spice. I have posted these (and other) positions as I have taken them. WIN or LOSE - they are what they are. I can't hide from figures that I broadcast in advance of the move in the shareprice. If I receive contrarian feedback that strikes a chord, I take it into account. That and, perhaps, the discipline induced by not wanting to make silly moves in public motivate my posting in the first place. I make no apologies nor should I have to. This is a public forum. If I was concerned about my blood pressure, I would not have bought SGL.