Community

Share knowledge. Find answers. Ask questions.

Online Share Trading

Engage and learn about markets and trading online

AGL

Reply
shizz
Contributor
Possible completion of +- 4 month head and shoulders postion? Thoughts?
0 Kudos
33 REPLIES 33
Not applicable
maybe, but not the most obvious one I have seen. I wouldn't bank on much more than a 5% pullback to around the 31500 level. That would be the bottom end of a bull flag and would put AGL on a PE of below 10. That would be a very good buying opportunity. In a commodity boom environment, with copper booming, exxaro & kumba shooting the lights out, and iron ore not looking to go anywhere south yet, it is just platinum that is dragging it back right now - but plat is clawing its way up there. Probably too late to short it right now
0 Kudos
Not applicable
I think head and shoulders to play out with target R255.Sasol head and shoulders price touched neckline today.This correction bigger and longer than we expect.30 to 40 trading days.Another 11% on the top 40.
0 Kudos
Super Contributor
chart pattern similar to TOPI. Complex correction - double zigzag( now in wave a of Y). I will be looking to go long if there is support at around 308 level at 61.8% retracement which will complete the corrective pattern. I f 308 does not hold then will short to around the 250 level...
0 Kudos
Highlighted
Super Contributor
Rams, I like this explanation you gave. Thanks.
0 Kudos
Super Contributor
I agree-anywhere around 310 would be a great entry level.Also coincides with long term support line.That's if it gets there.
0 Kudos
Supa
Contributor
Rams, are you talking about SOL or AGL?
0 Kudos
Super Contributor
AGL long term support 306-31000c, and that is the 61.8% Fib retracement level...
0 Kudos
Supa
Contributor
What's the support for SOL?
0 Kudos
Not applicable
SOL support is were there is plenty of buyers and a rising oil price ..he he
0 Kudos
Super Contributor
Supa, SOL trading in a "channel", sideways or rangebound since Feb between 350 and 390 with a "false" breakout about a month ago. Todays low was almost at the 350 support level which is also at 38.2% retracement level. If trades below 350, next significant support at 324(61.8%). Are you long or short?
0 Kudos
Not applicable
I am keen for some at 310 nom nom nom
0 Kudos
Supa
Contributor
Rams, I'm currently long and have been adding below 360. Got a little spooked with that last pull back and didn't add which I now regret. This market's really making me nervous...
0 Kudos
Not applicable
That is why you need a system. Take the head and nerves out of the equation. A good trade should stare you in the face and scream at you.
0 Kudos
Valued Contributor
something I have been pondering .. people use far too many chartin patterns and as such end up using none .. ideally pick one or two that you like, make sense and work and wait for them to bite you on the nose ..
0 Kudos
Super Contributor
even better if it bites you in the PLUM
0 Kudos
Not applicable
Ja, I posted on this a while ago - and it makes mathematical sense as well. The issue pertains to drawdowns. If you are trading a pattern that generates 10% return for every 5% risked and it does this on average every second trade - great return. Now if you are trading 2 such patterns - you will have a 10% drawdown. 4 patterns - 20% drawdown and so on. In this simplistic scenario - you trade 25 patterns, and you could just as easily wipe out as you could double your money. (Especially if you consider that different chart patterns advocating long positions are not mutually exclusive - if 1 fails - the probability is the other will too - at the same point in time).
0 Kudos
Valued Contributor
an if you tarde 25 patterns, no system .. Just random trading ..
0 Kudos
Super Contributor
Tradingg systems:"The best trading systems are crude and robust.They are made of a few elements. The more complex the sysytems, the more elements that can break...."
0 Kudos
Not applicable
I was being simplistic. Reality is most trading systems work more on a 45/45/10 split in terms of success or failure - which compounds the drawdown effect dramatically.
0 Kudos