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ALSI futures

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Rams
Super Contributor
like snow melting at -100 degrees
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43 REPLIES 43
sponono
Super Contributor
water boils at 90% your melting are probably MAYAN ice, right? lol
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Rams
Super Contributor
i dont know if any of you guys are trading the ALSI futures, but it behaves like a Yo-YO in serious need of Lance's EPO
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Not applicable
Ive been shorting any kind of rally since we hit 36,000 a 2nd time. Its been going well.

I think/hope its heading towards 34,500 - the support line on the daily charts. We havent had a proper correction yet.
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Rams
Super Contributor
but not much intraday moves...problem is we get caught between the UK and US open intraday, and nothing much happens intraday recently.
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sponono
Super Contributor
its a nightmare for daytraders but is now sitting at a crucial support level on a 1 hour chart
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magicactus
Frequent Contributor
Support broken, next stop possibly new year gap
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Rams
Super Contributor
Well, at least some action finally
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Not applicable
Even though Im shorting the whole time now, as long as we stay above 33,800 Im still very bullish. I think a nice healthy correction to around 34,500 will be good for the market, once we have that I believe were going to see some more new highs. OMO

The only way to capitalize on that though is overnight positions. Maybe I just havent had enough experience to be scared of it...yet
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Rams
Super Contributor
Simon thinks overnight risk is a myth and he has been through a few crahes....
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sponono
Super Contributor
coming back to test 35512
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Not applicable
heres something more concrete - for interest sake,
doing some quick back testing (since 1999 - 2013):
78% of the time overnight movement is between 0 - 300 points.
9% of the time it had more than 500 points movement, and most of those movements were in 2008.
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Rams
Super Contributor
so if you on the opposite side of the movement, and your stop is at 50 points,and you trading 5 contracts...???
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Not applicable
if thats your system then chances are you cant trade THAT system overnight.

I find that chart patterns (H&S, Support & Resistnc, etc) work very well with overnight. Often your stop loss would be more than 100 points away, but to compensate for risk I would reduce my contracts (so that the risk is always as close to 2% as possible, and just in case round down).
In other words, 50 point stop loss would mean 5 contracts, then chart pattern with 250 point stop loss would mean 1 contract...
If that makes sense.
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Rams
Super Contributor
profit must be 3X stop loss...so the market must move 750 points in your favour...if my calc is right, then overnight risk according to your stats is a reality
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Not applicable
the 250p was just to illustrate a point, you must also remember that your entry isnt necessarily at the close of the day you couldve entered earlier and already be in profit (or loss). But a target of 750+ is possible.

1 to 2 (risk to reward) trading is not ideal but also not wrong though, then it comes down to the probability of the event hitting target (like H&S hit 2 out of 3 times).

So 67%*(2/3) - 33%*(1/3) = 44 - 11 = 33 (anything above 0 is still profitable)
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Rams
Super Contributor
thanks, will look into it
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Rams
Super Contributor
tested and gone past... next level is 35700 and 35855 will take it beyond 36000...
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Not applicable
@760 were on a resistance line on the hourly charts, but on the other hand where in an inverse H&S thats pointing to 36,000.
Resistance line seems to be the top of a bull flag.
..which one will win?
will we see one more lower before we head
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