Visit our COVID-19 site for latest information regarding how we can support you. For up to date information about the pandemic visit www.sacoronavirus.co.za.

bs-regular
bs-extra-light
bs-light
bs-light
bs-cond-light-webfont
bs-medium
bs-bold
bs-black

Community


Share knowledge. Ask questions. Find answers.

Online Share Trading

Engage and learn about markets and trading online

ALSI futures

Reply
Rams
Super Contributor
like snow melting at -100 degrees
0 Kudos
43 REPLIES 43
sponono
Super Contributor
water boils at 90% your melting are probably MAYAN ice, right? lol
0 Kudos
Rams
Super Contributor
i dont know if any of you guys are trading the ALSI futures, but it behaves like a Yo-YO in serious need of Lance's EPO
0 Kudos
Not applicable
Ive been shorting any kind of rally since we hit 36,000 a 2nd time. Its been going well.

I think/hope its heading towards 34,500 - the support line on the daily charts. We havent had a proper correction yet.
0 Kudos
Rams
Super Contributor
but not much intraday moves...problem is we get caught between the UK and US open intraday, and nothing much happens intraday recently.
0 Kudos
sponono
Super Contributor
its a nightmare for daytraders but is now sitting at a crucial support level on a 1 hour chart
0 Kudos
magicactus
Frequent Contributor
Support broken, next stop possibly new year gap
0 Kudos
Rams
Super Contributor
Well, at least some action finally
0 Kudos
sponono
Super Contributor
0 Kudos
Not applicable
Even though Im shorting the whole time now, as long as we stay above 33,800 Im still very bullish. I think a nice healthy correction to around 34,500 will be good for the market, once we have that I believe were going to see some more new highs. OMO

The only way to capitalize on that though is overnight positions. Maybe I just havent had enough experience to be scared of it...yet
0 Kudos
Rams
Super Contributor
Simon thinks overnight risk is a myth and he has been through a few crahes....
0 Kudos
sponono
Super Contributor
coming back to test 35512
0 Kudos
Not applicable
heres something more concrete - for interest sake,
doing some quick back testing (since 1999 - 2013):
78% of the time overnight movement is between 0 - 300 points.
9% of the time it had more than 500 points movement, and most of those movements were in 2008.
0 Kudos
Rams
Super Contributor
so if you on the opposite side of the movement, and your stop is at 50 points,and you trading 5 contracts...???
0 Kudos
Not applicable
if thats your system then chances are you cant trade THAT system overnight.

I find that chart patterns (H&S, Support & Resistnc, etc) work very well with overnight. Often your stop loss would be more than 100 points away, but to compensate for risk I would reduce my contracts (so that the risk is always as close to 2% as possible, and just in case round down).
In other words, 50 point stop loss would mean 5 contracts, then chart pattern with 250 point stop loss would mean 1 contract...
If that makes sense.
0 Kudos
Rams
Super Contributor
profit must be 3X stop loss...so the market must move 750 points in your favour...if my calc is right, then overnight risk according to your stats is a reality
0 Kudos
Not applicable
the 250p was just to illustrate a point, you must also remember that your entry isnt necessarily at the close of the day you couldve entered earlier and already be in profit (or loss). But a target of 750+ is possible.

1 to 2 (risk to reward) trading is not ideal but also not wrong though, then it comes down to the probability of the event hitting target (like H&S hit 2 out of 3 times).

So 67%*(2/3) - 33%*(1/3) = 44 - 11 = 33 (anything above 0 is still profitable)
0 Kudos
Rams
Super Contributor
thanks, will look into it
0 Kudos
Rams
Super Contributor
tested and gone past... next level is 35700 and 35855 will take it beyond 36000...
0 Kudos
Not applicable
@760 were on a resistance line on the hourly charts, but on the other hand where in an inverse H&S thats pointing to 36,000.
Resistance line seems to be the top of a bull flag.
..which one will win?
will we see one more lower before we head
0 Kudos