I agree with the what if the future does this or that on commodities. Frankly I do not hold long terms in GLD or other such things. Unless I can hold the physical stuff the risks of as good a killing as the 80's back to $250 is always there. So I trade the price short term and make profits (and losses) but overall I love the game. Prediction is for physics (or Roffey) so I trade the ticker and my sight and sound (lots of gut in there to - and no my mid section is a healthy 90cm). I love what the fundamentals are doing but do I bother with them short term, NADA. I look else where that those funds eventually deluge into when it goes for or against the predictors. Slush funds, hedge funds, private funds and plenty investment firms taking the cash we give ém and stock pile the physical gold or metal and then go out and pump up a new hype in some new revolutionary technology or invention that will re-invent or improve the way we do life tomorrow and into the future. Then those that come along and threaten the way we could be better off at 1/10th the price they quash like a bug before even hitting the streets.
So the ultimate rule I have: watch, learn, play, have fun and don't go bust....