Does anybody follow this company? Interesting metrics. Good fundamentals. Some interesting underlying businesses. AND now it looks to be shaping up on a technical level too. Come on Simon - chastise me for punting my book - I have a chunk of these.
Threshold, gotta say I am a bit puzzled in your interest in this stock. It has extremely poor returns - and you are a avid punter of high ROCE / ROA stocks, if I interpret your strategy correctly. Moreover, if you look at its historical performance, it has never been a high return company - maybe in 2004, but even in boom years that was not repeated. Sure it is a NAV play, but a quarter of their assets consist of debtors, so even the NAV is not really a discount. And speaking of those debtors - this company has no cash, and generates very little cash - even in the boom years - it was draining cash. So it can't even really be considered a recovery stock - because recovery implies that it was great once, and is on the path to achieving greatness again. Just MHO, it flagged on my NAV watch - while looking for Piotroski candidates - but it never made it out of those filters either.
There have been specific historic challenges. However: they have some interesting underlying assets. In light of what has been going on in Japan their motor division might come into its own. Brenner mills was bought way cheaper than the valuation placed on the milling divisions of BRAIT and AFGRI's attempted acquisition as far as I can see. HOSAF should also come into its own now that its only competition has gone bust. There is a voracious appetite for polymer to pruduce packaging. Even the synthetic thread is climbing due to the collapse of Egyptian cotton producers. KAP also controls some very nice brands in SA through Jordan. I like the concentrated ownership structure here. Daun and Steinfohh effectively own the company. Also - she has completed massive capex programmes. She is rapidly paying down debt. If you look past her current working capital - she actually generates pretty decent cash.
AND then there is this - due to a variety of macro factors I think the age of the diversified industrial may return. They have been out of favour for 20 years now. I am trying to commit a couple of bar to this theme. I like the "additive" approach to building value. So I guess I am backing the abilities of Jooste, Mouton and Daun here. From the directors that brought you STEINHOFF, PSG, CAPITEC... now showing at a cinema naer you. In any case they are up 70% from my entry level.
eish, it is still a bit thin. They have a lot of world cup contributions in last year's PET results, and their brands are rubbish - 4% margin on a well established brand like bully beef? Bench mark that against Tiger brands, for example. Maybe the proverbial captains of SA industry can turn this around - I just don't think it is for me though.