Alsh opening @ critical technical level

[Mar-11]

A rally today could see a breakthrough of the resistance level, a down day would be a failed breakthrogh and continuation of the down trend.

[saash]

Hmmm - Can't wait for wall street to open.

[#3]

So far its looking like a small step up. EU zones also up and seem to be holding. Now the wait and trade the price till later...

[SimonPB]

DJ futures green at +39 .. FWIW ...

[Ninja]

Resistance is weak on the JSE and we currently have a H&S pattern developed and confirmed from mid nov 09. I think resistance will be broken and the index will move up towards 27200 - 27400. From that level we will see more downside initially to the 200 day MA, with the H&S target being 24625. IMO wait for the short set up and then go short.....end of this week maybe early next week. Once this retracement has finished we will see more upside and a great opportunity to buy again. May the charts be with you.

[saash]

you definately confuse me consistently. What Chart are you looking at and what time frame - and are you talking H&S, or a REVERSE H&S?

[Mar-11]

I think Ninja looking at JSE- share code not the alsh.......

[Ninja]

Saash, sorry to confuse you boet....looking at the ALSI daily chart. Not an inverse H&S, rather a downside normal H&S....first shoulder peak early December 09, head mid jan, shoulder early feb. Not pretty looking but seems to be valid. We are currently (IMO) in the middle of a little relief rally and we will see more downside in the short term before the bull shakes its head and takes off again. This sets up two nice trades...firstly in the short that is on its way as well as the long that will almost certainly follow. If you don't want to trade the index look at a tidy little short on Naspers down from the R280 - R283 mark for a move down to the 200 day MA at R250. Only my opinion but this rally is on low volume and I don't see the retracement from the larger move up as being complete yet.

[saash]

Ok - I look at the Topi, so my days are a little different. The drop on the 4th and 5th broke your neck-line, which you called a trigger - but the subsequent rally has moved above the neck-line, which cancels your trigger. Confirmation would have been to have pulled back to the neck and then moved back down again.
That said, what I am now looking at is:
Hourly Ticks - Reverse shoulder peacked at about 29 Jan; Reverse head on 5 Feb; Second shoulder on 10 Feb, and today moved through the neck and on the way for a nice long about 1000 points - pending a pull-back to confirm.

[#10]

I see what you are looking at but until that shoulder completes we will never know. I saw a shoulder developing on the DOW last year and well it still is no where near the completion, it just went up and up and up.
But these are the little devils i keep a lookout for and keep them s part of the system. Right now, trade it up and ride the trian to the next stop.

[Ninja]

Saash.....I agree this rally has more legs in it for the aggresive trader......I am waiting for the move back down again which I see as a safer trade. My H&S trigger has not been cancelled......only cancelled if rally moves above head.....I have definate confirmation on the H&S pattern with the rally a long way off the head of the pattern.I have not yet entered my short trade as we are still in the set up phase of the trade.....I have a confirmed reliable chart pattern as well as a break down in the uptrend.....I am now waiting for my entry point trigger which will also give me a clear exit point should I be wrong. On the share front NPN may not reach the R283 mark.....I think it should but if we get a clear reversal day down from a lower price I will have to enter with my stop being easy to identify. Hope all that makes sense.

[saash]

I think we agree that everything is up in the air at the mo, waiting to confirm if its gonna crack a long or a short. I'm in favor of the shorts at the mo - even my "long" requires a short first to confirm it

[Big_Bucks]

HI