Alsi Futures 03Nov10

[HateGauteng]

World markets still hitting ceiling. Small gap up at open.

[Wizard]

Long term...I got a theory that DJ is going to all time high and then we will see a recovery 61.8 south..taking it down to 9500 or so. Too many people looking for a pullback.not going to happen!

[HateGauteng]

Need strong fundamentals for that but for now printed money might just work!

[Wizard]

Another 2000 on top of this mess..nothing compared to the 5000 already in the bag.it's doable!

[HateGauteng]

Wonder how they plan to get around the unemployment thing?

[Wizard]

That's priced in already. Not getting any worse in any case.

[DEP]

Markets about to get hit by QE2... if its not big enough (i.e. $100-b per month) world markets will sell off.

[leminus2]

Any ideas whether the 100b per month will be met?

[SimonPB]

well yes.no.maybe .. if QE2 is small, that's because the FED thinks things are not so bad .. so it be good news .. if large then because FED thinks thinsg are bad .. but market ooking at it the other way ..

[DEP]

No one can answer that. However, my feel is that the Fed doesn't want to "rock the boat" to much and create a currency war. So I think they will start at $60b pm then increase it in the coming year to possibly over $100b pm.

[SimonPB]

the feds printing press ..

[#12]

Heng, I am trying to follow this conversation, but it's like you guys are talking in morse-code or sms lingo. And all I want to know is, the top40 going up more or down at some stage, and nobody can help me. Am I right? Trade the price they say, trade the price! What bloody price and in what direction, up or down?

[richardw]

My question is: if the printing press ramps up and the dollar tanks, the renminbi will follow it down. This makes Europe less competitive and us less competitive relative to both the U.S. and China. Our miners will be happy, but all other exporters will suffer. Why would our market go up?

I mean...yes, the U.S. market goes up and we go up because it's just wonderful. I've been long 80% of the time lately because it's such a happy market. But the playing fields are being tilted against us here.

The only thing I can think of is money escaping the U.S. markets looking for a better yield. What am I missing?

[DEP]

Hey Snakepit. The answer you looking for is a $ billion answer. No one has it! Is TopI going up or down tomorrow? No one know. Future very unknown...

[richardw]

The U.S. is about to release an extremely important statement on them continuing to support the economy. The market has gone up for the last couple of months in preparation. There's a saying "buy the rumour, sell the news", so the first thought is that it should drop after we get the announcement. On the other hand this is so expected that the big traders are likely to try surprise everyone by doing "something else". And maybe the news will be so impressive that everyone has to jump on board.

So yeah. Nobody knows - not Goldman Sachs, and least of all a few non-professional investors and traders on the bottom tip of Africa. Caveat emptor.

[#16]

way too much over analysis! Leave that to the big guys who have to factor in macro economics because their trade size is too big to exit quickly. Us little guys have the luxury of being nimble. We can get in and out quickly so use that to your advantage. Plan for the 3 scenarios, up down & sideways and act accordingly. It is that simple!

[#17]

I see the following possibility.After anouncement markets spike up to new highs.Then the big guys start selling the highs.BALOON BURST,AND DOWN WE GO. "Fearlessness is the condition for a cycle top."

[richardw]

I am - from a trading perspective I'm staying out until I see what's going on. But the smoke and mirrors lines-and-waves BS that passes for market insight is pretty poor conversation. Everyone expounds on their favourite tea-leaf recipe for untold wealth, ad infinitum. How boring, to live in an echo chamber.

[SimonPB]

yip .. just trade the price ..

[ACEP_]

Aw c'mon Guys take a view. My guess... debased $ = increased commodity prices = JSE & All Ords up tomorrow.... priced in? We'll see tomorrow...