Alsi Futures 28Oct10

[HateGauteng]

Yup, moms not doing too well, brother's in China and was recently evacuated due to an earth tremor. I shouldn't be trading under these circumstances but things are lining up nicely for the HG's aggro bear i.e. my bigger strategy. This pullback is annoting, coz I also want to catch the intra day movements within my larger strategy but not fatal as yet.

[Mar-11]

haha, just mentioned these cause they were mentioned in TA.. but if ur stop is just above triple top what is ur exit??cause if you entered yesterday afternoon, lets say at 26770. Risk = 27346-26770 =576.... the target on triple top =26190 profit = 26770-26190=580. giving risk:reward ratio of 1:1.....doenst seem worth it to me.... unless ur target well below 26190

[Electrox]

lets get this on the right track...NO strategy or pattern in this world can predict the future event you trying to profit/loose from. understand that all that you know is 1, where you stop is 2, trade the your method consistently till it proves it does not work, 3, after you get your signal dont watch the chart anymore unless the method you trade tells you to move your stoploss. 4. never think you know. hope this helps

[HateGauteng]

Thanks for the risk analysis, must admit that I never looked at approaching it that way, so i learn something new today. My exit is at 26190. I'm not sure of what the probability for downside is (from a triple top) but its better than 50:50, so I trade based on that. I would use this probability to augment your 1:1 risk reward ratio.

[HateGauteng]

Apologies . . . stop is above the tops of the triple top which means closeout.

[HateGauteng]

Exit is at the resolution of the triple top 26190.

[Mar-11]

i agree that the that 26190 has a higher probabilty of being hit than a positive breakout of triple top(at this moment in time). but if she breaks clear above 27000-(i say around 27040), for me and the way i interpret the TA, then yesterdays low was a false breakout and no triple top confirmed.....and this level as a stop also gives u a better risk:reward ratio..... just my opinion and somje of the things i look at before entering a trade.

[HateGauteng]

I've heard of pivot points but couldn't find a decent enough explanation when I googled. How do they work?

[#9]

Simon explain to me the purpose of the marketmaker.Where does he operate from and can he not change the trend wrongly.

[#10]

I vote this for TOTY (Topic Of The year) This is interesting, educational, informative and usable information! Respect to the SBK forum members.

[Mar-11]

babypips.com i think the site is called.....gives pretty good explanation along with how to calc for currency pairs..... does any one know if the equation the same the stock indexs??

[HateGauteng]

Thinking about it; just by their nature both H&S and double/multiple top patterns give 1:1 risk:reward ratios and these are the most reliable chart patterns. Would these odds get better?

[SimonPB]

market maker just takes an underlying price, runs it through the formula and then ouutputs a bid/offer whhich they then trade the derivative or what ever at .. they don;t move markets, they enable liqudity ..

[kwagga]

http://www.screencast.com/users/Chartist/folders/Default/media/57ca4091-f923-4001-a29b-b6184088ff40

[Mar-11]

we mixing up risk:reward rato, and probality of target hit:stop hittin... ur risk:reward after taking into effect transaction costs, and the probability that when ur stop is reached ur price is not machted, is below 1:1.... but you are argueing that their is a better chance of 1:1 that ur target will be reached: before stop loss.( based on multipul top formations) My maths is not awesome but if you had to calc ur expected profit im sure it would be 0 or just below.

[HateGauteng]

It takes the most powerful governments in the world to change the trend wrongly!

[SimonPB]

HG, you can't trade a multi year HS pattern using an intra-day short term product that expires in the next 45 days ..

[Mar-11]

even if above arguement is correct( ie.that u have better than 1:1 chance of winning trade)

[#19]

Why not?

[SimonPB]

becoz one will wipe out ..