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Alsi

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Super Contributor
Ya this be true.. I am under review at the moment.. belief vs results???? Any body got a couple of beliefs worth reviewing.
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Valued Contributor
all of them .. especially if we haven't tackled it before .. such as the idea that deficits are bad for stocks markets .. that's the theory, but the numbers show the opposite to be true ..
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Super Contributor
How about that contrairians make money..or That bollinger bands impact on trading and can be used for profit... Or that moving averages cross overs are triggers of any predictive value.
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Super Contributor
. . .or that gaps close. . .
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Valued Contributor
the contrairians is an interesting one .. the theory being that the contrairian makes money or the non-contrairian makes money .. but in truth there is always a third way in which neither does .. for example the market goes side ways (and there are other options such as the market goes way further then either expected, or didn;t expect etc.) ..

I am reading a book called, the only 3 questions .. I was deeply skeptical about the book, and am still not convinced, but I love his math and his ideas ..
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Super Contributor
ya exactly...Now lets get constructive... if you do not carry any of these beliefs..how do you make money trading agaist those who do..or protect capital under these conditions..
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Valued Contributor
an the ma cross over even more .. at best ma cross over is about the same as tossing a coin .. and this is why I use them, they merely give me the confidence to enter the market, then with money/risk management I can make a profit ..
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Super Contributor
Agreed on the belief challenge. Absolutely. My guess on correlation is that we anticipate, but sometimes react. There is often a change when the UK and the US open. Tuesday we had already dropped, but by the time the US had dropped more and our markets opened the next day their futures were pointing up, reducing local fear. If it had dropped another 4%, today would have been very...er...exciting. The poor Japanese have it hard. They get to trade just after the US has freaked out, so don't have much time to think things through. :)
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Super Contributor
To be controversial - the bollinger theory says we have to now move up, the gap theory says we move up, the over-sold theory says we have to move up - so lets be contrarian, and sell ! The trend, afterall, is down!
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Super Contributor
Sure I totally get that..For me I am realizing that I need to trade in a way that does not make me fearful..much of what my system has required of me has made me very un-easy. Its not just about being right its about not killing yourself with cancer..Sitting through a drawdown that is ok for my bank balence but not Ok for my emotions. At the same time letting a trade run so as to maximise the returns. ...so How do I change what is a profitable system into a profitable system that leaves me able to enjoy my trading.. right now I am getting caught between the dogma of my system... and some new approaches..I am getting stuck in the middle and its not a lot of fun right now..
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Super Contributor
Ananlysis paralysis. You're too fearful. Stop overthinking!
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Super Contributor
This is why I'm not trading this market.
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Super Contributor
you are so right..I wish I could have a brain like yours that way I would not be able to think.
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Super Contributor
LOL! Touched a nerve did I john-boy?
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Super Contributor
But the sad truth is that more and more and more info and back-up data (stochastics, bolingers whatever) don't make a trade any safer. The only safety is knowing when to get out - stop loss or exit with profit.
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Valued Contributor
aha, indeed .. the only things that matters is the selling ..
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Super Contributor
Ya you are so right..the thing I am trying to reslove in my mind and in a workable stratergy..is what to do when a trade is positive but turns negative.. at what point do you move that intial stop..my emotions say as quick as you can and be happy with a break even exit..but my experince shows that 7-10 the reason for exit was correct and one should hold onto the trade. Nothing brings out the self flaguation faster than a possitive trade that looses money...
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Super Contributor
ain't that the truth!!!
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Super Contributor
And the hardest thing about trading is that you are always wrong. 99 trades out of 100 you could have sold earlier, or later etc. Almost any trade you do could have been done better. It's hard to accept that you never get it right.
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Super Contributor
Ha! And I see in Simon's latest newsletter a quote saying that in this business you're good if you're right 6 times out of ten. I'll add that what's even harder is that in those 6 time you could almost always have been MORE right.
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