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Alternative Bidder ?

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indium
Contributor
Does anyone have any further information on the alternative bidder? There was a Sens out last night,and I want to guage whether its a good time to exit or whether its worth riding this a little longer.
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7 REPLIES 7
kwagga
Super Contributor
Sell on fact. Personally I think this is worth keeping for a little while longer. Barrier is 7.30. That is what you'll get worst case scenario. I like these odds.
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
Unless the original deal is falling through and this "alternative bidder" is a prop for the share price. If that were to happen - you would pick this share up for R3 odd. Just playing devil's advocate...
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
nah, there could be a higher offer ..
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Preston
Super Contributor
Confirmation bais?
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Not applicable
Threshold, nah - I don't think MTX is worth R3 anymore, but on its own, i don't think it is worth R769. They are definitely out of the woods - with current production capable of servicing debts. Only real problem, on their own, is that they will eventually have raise another R1bn or so to work their new assets - as by their own admission, their current mines only have LOM of about 7 or 8 years - so how are you supposed to give them a PE of anything more than 6? As for MTX's worth - any big miner with cash will be getting a good deal - unhedged production at full steam. Taking over of around US$100m of debt, which MTX is able to service, and providing the Capex needed for further expansion.
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
Not trying to place a value on this - just identifying a major technical support level if things go wrong with the deal. Sold 500 000 of these at around R5 looking for a pullback - so its all "sour grapes" as far as my opinions re MTX are concerned.
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
As an investment, I would agree - there is huge risk georaphically (maybe even more than South Africa {lol}) Her mines are short-lived and given tht her first mine cost R7 billion (If memory serves,) her directors would have to dilute the shareholders out of existence to establish the proposed new mines. She can forget about raising credit. But for a major suitor with buckets of cash - her copper reserves are spectacular.
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