Visit our COVID-19 site for latest information regarding how we can support you. For up to date information about the pandemic visit www.sacoronavirus.co.za.

bs-regular
bs-extra-light
bs-light
bs-light
bs-cond-light-webfont
bs-medium
bs-bold
bs-black

Community


Share knowledge. Ask questions. Find answers.

Online Share Trading

Engage and learn about markets and trading online

Ascendis Health interview

Reply
9 REPLIES 9
mullet_fish
Regular Contributor
An interesting company with a very articulate and interesting CEO (and good interview Simon!). My 5c: - "Health" descriptor is a bit strong as fertilizer, pet toys/foods/accessories, insect killer and pills/vitamins(mostly unregulated) are not really all "health" related. Very little natural synergy. - The Marlton (pet) side will be very difficult longer term as the 100's of SKU's (if not several 100/1000 SKU's)will be mostly niche and difficult to manage in a "corporate" structure. Innovation in these categories (very niche) is expensive and the Revenue per item is low. Slow moving so formal trade will always be wanting to cut some SKU's. - The unregulated vitamin environment is looking over traded and also due for some serious regulation. The likes of Dischem are asserting serious and costly trading terms as there are so many suppliers. This will intensify. House brands gaining traction. - Fertilizer category has low loyalty and low barriers to entry. The likes of Massmart will own these "commodity" categories once they get their act together in 2-3 years. - Direct selling "looks" easy but is a nightmare for new players. Networks take years to set-up, costs high. Even Unilever gave up a few years ago. - Management looks strong so hopefully they make it work. Personally these "bundled" co's mostly turn out problematic in the longer term. Due to its multitude of products in various categories and sales outlets (pet shops/garden shops to Clicks) this is not a TIGER or an ASPEN in the making. ASPEN as a comparison exited some consumer products (such as Playboy deo) in order to focus better.
0 Kudos
partridge
Super Contributor
Interesting post from MF . Unfortunately or perhaps fortunately(?) businesses are not like restaurants - one heck of a show on the opeing night and after that it's all about a slow surrender to gravity. More seriously. This does seem to be a polyglot affair - and my real question -is this a price maker or price taker?
0 Kudos
SimonPB
Valued Contributor
mullet, ultimately they a FMCG co, no pharma .. they in pharma sector coz it the hot space right ow
0 Kudos
kwagga
Super Contributor
Not a huge fan of their product spread, and the bond raising always makes me nervous. I keep an eye on them though.
0 Kudos
kwagga
Super Contributor
With markets this expensive even the pavement specials starts looking attractive.
0 Kudos
mullet_fish
Regular Contributor
Thanks Simon! ...Do you guys remember a food company about 10-15 years ago...went belly up...started with "A" I think? The guys (super smooth bunch) bundled some nice independently run smaller co's together (issued shares on fav terms to owners)...usual synergy story..blah/blah - what a story ..real disaster after a few years.... The share price hit a few rand then went to R0.01 - very sad - original owners of cos' lost everything. Sometimes things work better on their own and should stay that way. In listing docs they talk about 4000 Marltons SKU's ...wow..I dread to think of INV turn ratios and packaging write-offs! Anyway - hope these guys can make it work so that I will be fed!
0 Kudos
SimonPB
Valued Contributor
doesn't HDC have 225k SKU's and make it work, but thing is that's their edge, the logistics ..
0 Kudos
stefanb
Contributor
I think the company have a lot of potential, definitely an attractive product range in my opinion. The valuation might be too high with a current PE of above 20. I see they forecast an 80% increase in EBITDA for June 2014. Do you guys think they might have valued the company a bit too high?
0 Kudos
stefanb
Contributor
Sorry got the PE ratio wrong. To what extent will the exchange rate influence this company if the rand continues to weaken against the dollar?
0 Kudos