Guys if there was just one thing, we would all be making rediculous amounts of money. I do not agree that we try predict, we follow the US and FSTE... to demonstrate this, take a look at the complete lack of movment in any market when the US was closed on monday. And it is my understanding that people use the futures market to hedge there cash market positions so it is quite possible for them to work in opp dirrections.
John, on that point however, markets always predict..."everything is discounted"...absolutely everything....what we should be asking is what causes markets to move. They certainly dont move because the want to...they move because they have to ....what we are talking about (the time lag between markets opening and closing) creates a vacuum between expectations and the ability to act on those expectations...this is what creates gaps....why can short term traders trade these gaps succesfully...because they understand that gaps represent a time during which the short person with a 5 min view takes advantage of a person who has a long term view is forced to move...i.e. either his stop triggers or his fear/greed take over....the day plays it self out the views of market participants become balanced again (note not aligned but balanced) again....the inability to trade the moment (when our market is closed)