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Online Share Trading

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CZA

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CarlMarx
New Contributor
Anybody know why the jump in the current prize?
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28 REPLIES 28
Whatsup
Contributor
Possible reason could be the Queensland floods in Australia, major coal export region. Concerns regarding global availbility.
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Ninja
Super Contributor
Who gives a sh*te......when you stop trying to understand why and just the trade the price you will be much less stressed and make much more moola!
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Not applicable
Ninja, one of the most sucessful documented strategies of all time is William O'Niel's CANSLIM. In it he talks about a compelling event. For a shareprice to hold its momentum, there needs to be a compelling event driving it, for an investor or trader to decide whether to let the trade ride or not
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
She has been moving up nicely on her primary markets (AIM/ASX) for the last 2 weeks. We are just adjusting. CZA has taken over the RIO TINTO's entire prospect (the CHAPUDI mine) adjacent to the MAKHADO coking farms at an agreeable price (for CZA.) The scale of this project might prove very tasty for her investment partner here, EXXARO. RIO has presumably applied the funds to her $4 billion RIVERSDALE bid in Maputo; which will become her African coking coal exposure.
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sponono
Super Contributor
I dont O'Neil would even look at CZA. There is no C and no A.
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Ninja
Super Contributor
HoHum....I agree compelling fundamentals move the market.....we just don't know how they will move the market. If you knew the result of the unemployment data in the US an hour before it was released do you think you could trade the price when it was released? Maybe, maybe not. If you knew who the new CEO was going to be or when some tax law would be passed or some merger confirmed....do you think knowing in advance the fundamentals would allow you to trade the news? Maybe, maybe not. What is a certain thing is that if the traders out there think the news is good my price will remain above the 20ma, if they think the findamental news release which is 20% better than expected is *****, my price will close below the 20ma. It is impossible to translate fundamentals into price action.....all fundamental analysis does is makes one feel secure and then one find's oneself surprised when price does the opposite of the news. The really dangerous part is that if I convince myself that my fundamental insight is correct it can keep me in a losing trade for a long long time. Price will never leave me confused, trade it , don't try and understand it.....the interpretation of fundamentals is different for everyone, just take 10 market guru's and ask for a trade outlook on a share.....you will have 10 different interpretations of the fundamentals and how you should trade it. Which one is right? Price is either up or down.Simple. Only my opinion Skaapie but I find trading the price the only way to make the right decisions consistently. The fundamentals drive the price....I agree, but I can see the fundamentals in my chart price action....don't need to understand them. PS - not telling you I am right and you are wrong......just my experience in trading both styles.
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
Fundamental are EVERYTHING. You trade their impact! Any trader that ignores the fundamentals will get carried out in a box. At best the victim of a raft of fees and a string of triggered stop losses.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
nonsense, I have been successfully trading and ignoring fundamentals for over 10 years .. (don't confuse investing with trading) ..
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Ninja
Super Contributor
Threshold, not bashing fundamentals, just questioning their use in timing your trade. How many days/hours after market moving insider information is available to the big market players do you think you you get to see it? I see it immediaetly in my price action.....you get to trade it long long after all the real players have already traded it. An example would be to look at Dow futures just before 9/11.....why did they dip? Was there some sort of knowledge out there? I don't know, but I do know the price would have put me in short way before the actual event. The fundamentals you are trading are always far to old and incomplete (If you read some fundamental news how much of the full story are you really getting compared to the big movers and shakers that really move the market out there?) to get your timing right. No matter what, the info you think is so important is old, incomplete and already factored into price. By the time you decide to trade the news the price trader has already banked his profit.
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Not applicable
Well I am formulating a new strategy this year which I call 'small cap breakout', and it is based on reactions to news items. The goal is to pick up the SACOIL type trades early on. Breakout trading has proven to be one of my most successful strategies I have employed, put pullbacks are a ***** - so I need a strategy to filter out what type of trades are succeptable to pullbacks and which are not. And stock rerating is a definite criteria for a successful trade, which implies looking at fundamentals in my trading.
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
Simon Nonsense indeed. Fewer trades aligned to the fundamentals excludes the risk of finding yourself on the receiving end of a slew of trades in valueless(?) counters that winds up teetering onthe brink of a technical breakdown and gapping through stop-losses as the traders run for the exits. BUT thank you for your sound technical input there.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
whatever boet .. my last 10 years must have been a dream .. I simple don't trade low liquid stuff, in facty I trade indices .. so gaps of notable risk highly unlikely .. an I have never missed a stop loss in 10 years so something is working ..
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
I really wouldn't know about your last 10 years - boet. BUT empirically speaking - you would need to compare them to everybody else's in order to determine how well they went. Anyway - we just came through an unstoppable bull where anything worked and everyone was a hero. By way of a benchmark - even low beta top 40's like Tiger Brands went up some 12x + including dividends (tax free.) That's more 2000% before tax. So I trust that you did a lot better than this.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
TBS up 380% last 10 years, ex dividends (check the chart here) .. and last 10 years was not all bull .. started wilh dot.com run, then burn .. then 9/11 and bear until 2003 .. then bull of 2004-07 and crash of 2008 followed by rally of 09-10 .. so a decade of all sorts, not one way traffic ..

point is simple that it is not one way only to engage the market .. I think fundamentals for trading is pishtosh .. but I don't run around saying it can't be done (that was my objection to your comemnt when you suggested your way ro the highway), I just don't see the point/effort/reward .. it's called different strokes for different strokes ..
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
You need to do your homework. TBS went from sub R40 to R195 She also unbundled AD***** and SPAR; so add these. Then add your dividend streams from all three. As regards the bull market - we went from +- 5000 to +-32000 on the TOPI. Perhaps you missed it?
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
I never said "My way or the highway" Just indicated that risk is internal to the counter. Trading the indices is a choice - it removes the risk of the company itself. It does, of course, limit potential upside. The irony of it all is this: The truly greedy among us would' it seems, do better investing than to trading. PS! Look what the auto editing software did to ADC-CK INGRAM (AIP)
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
but was it a straight line ?? as a trader that's surely the point ??
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
so then I missunderstood your "Any trader that ignores the fundamentals will get carried out in a box" statement ..
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
Yes clearly you did. What has the one to do with the other? If you chose to trade PAMODZI GOLD because the technicals looked good - so be it! And your response re TBS moving in a straight line is feeble. You would not have had the AIP or SPAR unbundlings + dividend streams + the tax benefit - but you would back yourself to trade through a (by your own admission) volatile market - and extract 2000%+
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