BAP,at 13700 today the price was above all the moving averages (5,10,20,50,100) and all are still rising.This indicates an uptrend.The stochastics and rsi show it is overbought but there is no divergence ie.the price as well as these indicators are still rising.Shares can stay overbought (or oversold) for quite long so this alone is probably not a good reason to go short.If a share is in an uptrend it is better to go long on pullbacks to support, rather than to short it.In this way you have the edge (ignore all earlier discussion on tossing a coin to go long or short-that might work when the market is volatile but not when a share is trending).When you went long in September the opposite was true(all MAs were falling,the price was below these MAs etc).Thus it was in a downtrend.You went against the trend and the odds were against you.I am not an expert but this is my opinion.