Correction soon?

[DEP]

Signs are all over the market. Expect a correction soon. I am a Bear at the moment. You?

[kr_pto]

um, what signs? please do enlighten us as to any signs that you see.

[asylum]

Dep did you short the market again?

[DEP]

1. When there is too many bulls around and no bears. 2. P.E.'s at historical highs. 3. When fund managers warn investors that markets are unstainable. 4. When I am the only bear...

[SimonPB]

DEP, except none of those 4 are currently in play.

[DEP]

Not yet, cannot find appropriate avenue, thanks.

[TJB]

ROFL!!!

[DEP]

Elaborate on "not in play"

[el_torro]

Have been bleeding while short but I agree with your sentiments - call me a fool, but at these levels, I'm looking at what the inherent value is of these shares - returns of 1%...??? Why would I ever want to invest anywhere else?

[DEP]

ROFL?

[DEP]

I can only find fair value in local Pref shares and offshore markets (non emerging markets).

[cfm]

Only time will tell if I'll be the one taking your money or you be the one taking my money.

[SimonPB]

Lots of bears around (kills 1 & 4), overall P.E.'s are NOT at historical highs & which fund managers? A couple in yesterdays crimes - but as a community not at all.

[DEP]

I am taking no one money. I'm invested 50% offshore; 10% Pref shares; 4% property and 36% cash. Maximum I will short the market will be 2% of my portfolio. So don't worry, I am not gambling away my money...Just bearish on SA equity.

[DEP]

So what are you long on?

[Russ]

What do you mean by yesterday's crimes?

[DEP]

So, Simon where are you finding value?

[SimonPB]

yesterday's crimes = sunday times.

long of lots, depends which portfolio, bias is NOT resource stocks albeit have some. Industrial, listed prop soem fins & international stocks (JSE listed stcoks that earn in foreigh currency and or operate lots in foreign lands.

You mention value, too that end I am not saying the JSE is cheap, but with earnings roaring ahead at around 20% (for top40 stocks) and their average PE around 17x we're not expensive yet. I work on PE below 10 = cheap and above 20 = expensive. So nearing the top, but heck the SP500 peaked with a PE at almost 30!

That all said, will we have a bear market? ABSOLUTELY, question is when and with respect many many people started positioning themselevs for the coming bear in 2005 and have lost out on massive upside. So I keep it simple and repsond to what is happening. When the bear arrives I will close naked trading longs, keep my very long term buy & holds and start going short in my derivative portfolio. But first I need to see a bear - for now things are going up.

[DEP]

It is good to have different opinions about the market. Bulls Vs Bears. currently the bulls are winning. Lets keep it up.

[DEP]

Simon, no one can call the top or button of a market. However, having evaluated everything, at the end we must follow our inner feeling... Agree?