DOW and SnP very, very bullish on pattern non-confirm

[_nova]

Both the DOW and SnP surged strongly right through what could and, in this market, should have been an evening star pattern (see the candles for 6, 9, and 10 Feb 09 for a perfect example). They're sitting right on the 21 day EMA and it's crucial they break out to extend to 7600 for the DOW and 780 for SnP. Above that and they're clear for 8000 and 800 and then methinks we're going to see rally mania for a while. Though to establish a bull and send the bear into real hibernation the DOW must clip 10,000 and the SnP 1,000. The downside risk is that the RSI and Stoch are lifting very quickly. What's the thinking out there? I think we're in for at the very least an uptrend period through April into May, possibly even June. I reckon the TOP40 could just make it to 26,000.

[_nova]

...but for now we have a 300 pip gap to close

[#3]

I disagree bru'....me thinks next week sees Daddy Bear return! Only thing that will change me mind is a dollar collapse.

[#4]

I think ALSH has to touch 20500 before the next razing begins,.. Glad to see it turning up then, seeing as i have had this suspicion since last weekend,...

[scandal]

look out for earnings period in US from April. that is when i reckon the bears will make their come back. Right now i think they a re setting a rather impressive trap for the bulls.

[_nova]

Dinen, my logic agrees with you totally as global fundamentals say we're really screwed. But this 'ole perma-bear has been gored too often by exuberant bulls who stampede before they look and that's what I believe is happening now. I closed all my shorts Tuesday and staying out for now. The bulls are frustrated and hurt and they're smarting for some payback and the talking heads have been winding them up ever since the so-called Jan support base. So now we have a new low behind in the US (not here, though arguably a double bottom) and they're saying 5 consecutive green closes is a new bull (don't ask me how they worked that one out). I'm not fighting it, for now I'm sitting out, and if the rally looks like it will extend, then I'll go long some and take a little bit of the middle ground and wait for the truth of forward PE's and economic fundamentals to patiently do what it eventually will do.

[Brazen]

mmmm. . . Nova, the perma-bear is feeling bullish. What can that mean.

[#8]

March 26th is Retro Venus Conjunct Sun,.. April 17th is Venus Direct,.. The Last Venus Sun conjunction took place in July 2008, Venus showing mainly Soft Retailer and Financial Sectors, Interest then how that was the Retailer low for the year 2008,.. As such, we expected the current turn these retailers have seen and too it shows up in the Dow passing the 7000 mark when it did,.. Early Jan and early Feb being token dates there,.. Mar 26th and Apr 17th are going to be of interest regards,.. I would not be suprised if markets manage to rally till Mid April then,.. Very interesting to follow, as the last Venus retro we experienced in 2007 saw the run on Northern Rock as Venus turned to travel direct again,.. This was concurrent to Saturns entrance into Virgo, a 30yr timing cycle,.. Hence April 17th could be the time to get those swimming trunks back out,..

[_nova]

ya, Brazen, I'm seriously considering therapy, I'm quite out of my comfort zone when I start feeling bullish (and many other bears I know, do as well). Thing is you cannot stop a tsunami, you just get to higher (cash) ground and wait for it to pass and subside, or else you grab a soifboid and ride along. Me, if this looks like it's going to run then I'm riding along, but I think I'll wait for next week for two reasons: [1] Not much news out today but EZ retail sales and US Confidence and inflation. I'll see how the US and EZ behaves today and Monday and I reckon by then we may have an idea.

[#10]

What was pretty interesting to see on this recent turn now is that literally, there was not one positive story out there early in the week,.. Even Buffet needed some extra swimming trunks,.. Truth to the tale that the turn comes after the last optimist been clawed to death,.. No doubt Euro Banks are insolvent, but players need to touch the 200d MA before we sink back for another dip in the shark tank,.. Rules is Rules ek se,..

[barry_1]

i tend to agree with Dinen,although i think the market will tank from the 23 March after the futures close-out!

[_nova]

now Dixie, no offence intended since each to his own method, but this is exactly the reason that when the bulls return I put rational fundamental analysis aside and focus only on herd psychology. Dinen bru?... ferget macro fundamentals for now.

[#13]

Don't get me wrong dude...I've been long these last few days but will close this afternoon and sit in cash. You could very well be right, but I am not willing to bet on it either way.

[#14]

Tend to agree although when you zoom out on your graphs a lttle it all falls in line with weekly/monthly support/resistance lines,.. The short term News Flow and Herd Psych follows these trend lines fabulously,.. I fond confirmation for this rally when the major indexes broke the trading bands on the 4hr graphs, it broke through so hard, there had to be a follow on rally,.. OMO, but it was documented and acted upon, hence happy with the results now and to be in the market long,..

[_nova]

Dixie, the problem re bad news is that we really ain't seen nothing yet. The BDI is sideways and it's still 90% down. The EuroZone is in denial and the Yanks are running in circles and shouting and ... ya, much ado about nothing. Some concepts coming this year: [1] Credit Card Defaults [2] Eastern European Sovereign Default [3] House Price Deflation only starting to get steam (property bubbles historically take as long to correct as their build-up, that's a decade) [4] No salary increases, salary cuts on falling corporate income, default, and bankruptcy and unemployment, and yes, it's coming here soon [5] Deleveraging trillions in derivatives and Tier 3 assets (this has not been done and is not considered a topic for polite conversation, but it's coming). Though all of this don't mean diddly squat when bulls want to go long, so we go with the flow :-)

[#16]

In all my errings last year, chief one i assume was over anticipation,... the market is a slow trodding beast, bull or bear and there is always an over bought or oversold fishy to catch,.. Sitting here daily, the key fault is sensationalisation of what our eyes are being party to,.. 'i cannut believe',.. I.e. more time at the pool is required,. less time following the thrashing monster that can smell so foul,.. A thread from the other day mentioned the fees on this platform for SSF's etc,.. one would tend to agree, possibly, but that is no excuse for poor performance in picking your prices and keeping your nerve,.. More forgiving platforms do nothing for your price selection skills in the long run, in fact they could make you a shoddier trader over the years,.. Here you perform to the half percent, which makes for great skills in the long run,...

[_nova]

Ya, USD collapse unlikely to happen anytime soon. I reckon we're going to see EURUSD clip 1.30 and mebbe 1.31, or even as high as 1.36 (which is where a rally will come in on the markets), but then it's going to dive straight back into the middle 1.20's and the bear resumes. Now if I could just time the dang thing. But I don't know about a timeline as short as 1 week. I really think we could be looking at a 6 to 6 week rally, or at least some volatile swings

[#18]

All somes back to good'ol saying: "Let the trend be your friend".