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Dead Cat Bounce

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Jim_Bean
Regular Contributor
is this dead cat bounce or did I miss something ... surely the Aus cut in interest rates can't have this effect?
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8 REPLIES 8
_nova
Super Contributor
Who knows, I got that wrong but like John reckons... 'Cramer says sell everything'. Check the FTSE. Now that one is a dead kitty bumping
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Not applicable
Bull trap perhaps?
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_nova
Super Contributor
yes Drigo but it's now much more than a bull trap, it's pure panic. The VIX is insane. It went to 56 and now at 52 which means you have a 52 percent chance (scuse the pun) of being wrong... which means you WILL be wrong. Whether you're long or short you're going to lose... it's that simple. Volatility is totally off the scale and unless you have a wide margin of longs and shorts to hedge this volatittylillity, you'd be wise to step aside
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MichaelR
Regular Contributor
Buy and wait.
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Not applicable
Yep too much for me to handle. When you cannot sleep well at night and you anxious to see what happens the next day, cash in and take a shot-left. Makes no sense trying to call it, both fundamentals and TA out the window. Strange market this.
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_nova
Super Contributor
Now here's a scary scenario ... "Fed reportedly looking into unsecured lending" ... (marketwatch.com) This is like the printer who prints money to pay himself for printing money in the first place... what a lark! At some point in the next couple of weeks the realisation of exactly what a big ball of BS the 1st world is feeding us is going to settle in...
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_nova
Super Contributor
A bit of wisdom... Contrarian investor Bill Fleckenstein: "It's difficult to have a strong opinion about where the market is headed considering there are so many moving parts as to what the government continues to throw at the market," he says. But Fleckenstein believes the fundamental problem hasn't changed. And that's the housing crisis. "I think the underlying problem is that houses are priced wrong as compared to people's incomes and the economy is not as strong as most people thought because it was fueled by people taking money out of their house." Unfortunately, there could be another shoe to drop. Fleckenstein isn't a fan of government involvement in the markets. "I think (regulators) are going to create another epic problem although I can't tell you what it's going to be," Fleckenstein says. As a result he expects a rough ride in the days to come. "One thing that's clear is that the economy is in for some rough sledding."" ...and that's the bottom line. Until people can afford the houses they live in there's going to be no end to the carnage
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_nova
Super Contributor
and here's the punchline from Patricia Chadwick on cnbc: "How long this state of affairs will last is a function of how long it takes the world to deleverage. And deleveraging is a deflationary event. That is not good for economies, for profits, for the prices of assets and that includes the price of one's home. The stock market does not work well in a deflationary environment. The only thing that looks good in deflation is cash. And right now cash is looking pretty good to me."
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