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Dow Futures Red

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Ninja
Super Contributor
Dow looks like a red open later today.....looks like another red day on the JSE.....
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19 REPLIES 19
Not applicable
fut on all european markets are up you calling it wrong
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alsi fut up 260 points
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Ninja
Super Contributor
Thanks....where can I view the alsi futrures?
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channel 410 dstv
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Pam_1
Regular Contributor
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alsi fut up 525 points
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_nova
Super Contributor
DOW futures don't matter right now. This is a by the book swing play. The last DOW swing ratio is 2.4 and we generally do double that so our ratio should be around 4.8 and right now we're at 3.1 so expect another couple hundred pips and a topout at around 18350. OMO
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_nova
Super Contributor
For anyone wondering why we're up today? The USD got a buttreaming last night around 20h00 when the DOW spiked up. Reason? Well FX traders say no reason really other than a short squeeze and bargain hunting on Wall St (Yes, I got my proverbials handed to me in a handbasket on a EURUSD short. Thank goodness I use stops!). The point I'm making is that we're now in an even more volatile situation. The EUR is way overvalued at 1.28 against the USD. The appropriate level for the EUR should be around 1.20 to 1.24 or even 1.16 because JCT is artificially keeping ECB rates far too high. Watch out for the EURUSD drop because when it comes it's going to be explosive and it's going to take bourses down with it. The ECB will drop rates in Dec, they cannot avoid this decision anymore. Trichet has screwed the EZ well and proper with his conservatism.
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Ninja
Super Contributor
Nova I agree...no reason for last nights rally and with more potential bad news later today out of the US.....jse down again come monday
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DST
Super Contributor
1. Is your nick from the espanol?

2. Does your equilibrium calc for the $/euro also apply to the $/R? If so what should the rate be?
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_nova
Super Contributor
Hi DST, yes it's the latin word for new. In Spanish it would be nueva. The equilibrium calc is not my own research but rather the opinions of many traders on the FX newsfeeds I use. They're all of the opinion that the EUR should drop roughly 4c for every 50bps that Trichet concedes. So a Dec 100bps cut from a level of 1.28 to 1.24 should give a result of 1.20 to 1.16
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dilligaff
Super Contributor
Nova-wot source would you recommend for learning Swing Trading (the offical thing as done by traders in markets, not other folks with interesting habits)?
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_nova
Super Contributor
You're gonna laugh at me Dilligaf but just google 'swing trading' and you'll probably get better info than any book will give you. Wikipedia gives the best description I've seen anywhere. Try this site http://www.swing-trade-stocks.com/ It's pretty straight up and keeps it simple to one strategy. Word of caution: Swing trading is extremely risky and really hard to learn. I've been trading many years and only started applying swing strategies from this year. You really need to know your chart patterns and oscillators to trade swings and you need a very disciplined approach to risk/reward. Above all you need to understand swing ratios, pivots and relative pip moves for each instrument you trade before you even attempt to trade swings so it's advisable to papertrade a while till you get a feel for it. And remember, swings work different for each type of market Bull, Bear and Consolidation. I've paid mega schoolfees learning to swing trade and I'm nowhere even reasonably proficient at it yet. I'm about breakeven now. Finally, accept out of hand that 2 out of 3 trades normally go against you. The secret is 1:3 risk:reward with trailing stops set once the 3 is reached. If a swing trade goes against you, get out with tight stops, don't wish it, just get out. The reward is 3 times the stop and that's why a 1 in 3 hit rate is still profitable because often a good swing trade will give you a risk:reward of 1:10 or even better
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dilligaff
Super Contributor
Many thanks....some light weekend reading
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Shard
Super Contributor
My father told me a story the other day about a car called a Nova brought out by Ford. It was apparently a huge flop because Nova in Spanish means "Doesn't go", so no self respecting Spanish speaking person would go near it. Since spanish is the second largest spoken language in the world, it kinda cut down their potential mark. Random clipnote for the day
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_nova
Super Contributor
Shard, that is actually a true story and it cost Ford big money and face. However, you need to understand the colloquial context: nova is latin for 'new', nueva is Spanish for 'new' and 'no va' is Spanish for 'no go' so colloquially the Latin Americans with their fine sense of humour called the Ford Nova the 'no-go'
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DST
Super Contributor
What do the spaniards call the Ford company, I wonder?
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Not applicable
Hi Nova Im sort of on the fx learning curve..have a few practice accounts. Are you able to explain why when the DOW spiked last night, the USD got nailed. Whats the correlation?
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_nova
Super Contributor
Stocks and the USD have an inverse relationship lately. Strong USD = weak DOW (and others). Sometimes one leads the other and vice versa. About the best explanation I can give is that when the DOW (US markets in general) rallies then the JPY carry trades also take off on risk appetite which inversely knocks the USD down. When the DOW drops then carries unwind on risk aversion and the USD gains against other currencies. I use the EURJPY and USDJPY as my lead indicators as they often move a couple minutes ahead of EURUSD and GBPUSD. But it's not a perfect science
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