I've been out of EXX since it bounced up from 120-ish the first time. It's been flirting with the supports and then dropping through them very aggressively. I don't have the guts for these kinds of trades - neither long or short.
I don't know what the fundamental reasons are for the drops. Exxaro have recently discovered an awesome seam of coal, which I believe is bigger than anything else in the world, and which can apparently be extracted with a shovel and a good pair of boots. As far as I know, the fundamentals are good. Technically, she closed on the 89week SMA on Friday. The 89wma is a longer term indicator which acts like an elastic band. Effectively, the further the price moves from the 89wma, the harder it will run when it turns.
When I mentioned the Fibonacci supports extending down to 9800 for EXX a few weeks ago I never really expected them to be actually tested. But I closed my positions anyway, and this gives me the luxury of watching from the sidelines right now. 9800 is the last beach-head for EXX, once breached there's a long drop to a double bottom at 8000, and if that fails there's an even longer one to a 12-month, 100% retracement at 5500.
So, last week EXX closed exactly on a long-term rising support line as well as the 89wma and about 400c above the 61.8% fibo retracement. If I do get in it will be with very small positions and tight stops below the support, and then feed in more contracts as the price rises. The market in general is heading for a big rise toward September/October, and getting stocks such as EXX at these prices could be a bargain.