'Expect a 50 basis-point rate hike'

[#1]

well done there super with every pasing day you surprize me more and more with your intelligents. Keep it up man !!!

[#2]

well done there super with every pasing day you surprize me more and more with your intelligents. Keep it up man !!!

[Brazen]

LOL! Sure is john-boy.

[john_1]

I know my little one think so. Granny went out and bought another wardrobe full of clothes for her yesterday, my god. it took me about an hour while I watched my 3 year old try on clothes looking for the right outfit for her day. I am sooo F###

[Preston]

Hennie... Super idego got his degree, honours and master as well as Doctrate cum luade from the University of Zululand.(LOL)

[#6]

As do you with your acuman

[Brazen]

God love em! Boys are no better. Gravy was called in to the teacher yesterday cos our youngest refuses to colour in properly. Instead of using many colours he only uses one. Had a talk with him yesterday and his reason? 'I'm lazy.'

[john_1]

Nothin wrong with him, just git work on his excuses. But having spent time in Knysna were everybody walks around in multi couloured tie dies I can understand how only using one colour could freek a teacher out.

[#9]

If I can add my cents worth. The marginal buyers of rand are equity funds not bond funds. Most fund managers believe local bonds are expensive. Few foreign bond fund buy naked rand position (ie currency risk is ussually hedged). The equity funds' reaction to the rate hike is therefore of importance to the ZAR. 50bp will keep the equity funds interested and ZAR will probably strengthen. 100bp you scare the equity funds away and the ZAR weaken. The economic theory of covered iterest rate parity doesn;t work in real life otherwise there would be such a thing as the carry trade. So in short I am with Simon, ie 50bp. IMHO

[Preston]

Saint. I appreciate your comment and so some extent you are right...but i have got a feeling that he (TITO) will really want to surprise the market.

[#11]

100bp.....will also add justification 'Noddy-points' to the Unions' for their wage-demands...bad for mine share-prices,though(short-term)

[Preston]

Hi Zarp. A 1% increase will be an "excellent kick in the face" for the union, i reckon ! Question. Have you notice how every time around election time , the union organises strike and matches? I still believe this is a conspiracy theory is in play?

[#13]

Preston.Ahoy !...Tito is ex Minister of Dept. of Labour, ex General Manager of Labour( during Govt of national unity - 1994 to 1998)..Labour is his area.

[SimonPB]

what election ?

[CHATTYCHAT]

50 bp has a reletavily minor effect on the economy, and it kicks in 6 months down the line. 100 bp might just do the trick this time around and even when the effect kicks in 6 months later, it will be a kick in the teeth for those not believing in economic theory... Thinking back: the previous round of speculation expected 100bp but hoped it will be 50 bp, which it was. Maybe this time the balance of the bp instalment will act as the answer. I expect 100bp but believe 50bp.

[Preston]

Govt election - April next year

[SimonPB]

nope, tis in 2009

[DCTrader]

Am I the only one believing Tito will keep rates unchanged? You said it ChattyChat... there is a huge lag effect... nearly 6 months. We are only now feeling the 2% raise from last year. Together with the NCA coming into effect now and the fact that core inflation excluding maize and fuel is the only thing that rates can control... I'm going for unchanged rates. If the barrier is 6% then surely he can allow a breach for a marginal time period? The last thing the MPC wants to do is raise the rates too much then have to back track a few months down the line. Growth is also slowing as was evident with the latest GDP figures. Just my 2c worth...

[#19]

I'm with you, dude. There's a good case to be made for a hold. Tito's boys need to walk between a trend in inflation and a blip - reckon we are not yet in a trend. Still, I wouldn't put any money on him NOT raising. Just me feelings.

[Stock11]

It's interesting that there seems to be an almost 50-50 split in terms of opinions on the rate of increase. Even though to some it's more a gut feel than any concrete basis. Let's hope Tito and team dont surprise us!