'Expect a 50 basis-point rate hike'

[SimonPB]

http://tinyurl.com/3yjqu3

I think 50 bps will be bullish.

[Preston]

Simon ,Simon ,Simon In my humble opinion , i believe that because the inflation threshold has been exceeded, Uncle Tito is going to teach us a huge lesson. I believe that 100bsp is on the card.....

[Tango]

ja, exactly. Which is why only 50pts would be bullish, and already priced into the market.

[SimonPB]

preston, me boldly says zero chance of 100, it would suggest panic and worse that the RB ended up behind the curve (which they may well be), but the initial early increases were a clear attempt to get ahead of the curve. Further as we've discussed else where current inflation is not going to be directly hit by a larger increase as much of the current inflation is oil and maize prices.

An hence as tango says, 50 is bullish.

[Stock11]

Knowing uncle Tito, he can be very unpredictable sometimes. He also likes to flex his muscles now and then. 100bps doesn't sound too unrealistic to me. It woul'be a shock to the market granted, but it is very very likely from where I'm seating.

[SimonPB]

ya but reserve banks are not there to shock markets or to bully. They are there to keept hings stable and predicatable, and that's exactly what our res bank has been doing and will continue doing with a 50 increase. remember RB = boring.

[#7]

Let's speculate.....I say 100 basis points.My reasoning is, (1)We are an Emerging Market with a nasty "Fin-Health" profile as at.There is a RISK-premium to holding EM "junk" Rands.(2)The Multi-Trillion-a-day Bond/Currency Mkt is the Big Kahuna.THEY DECIDE.Stock Markets are amoebic ito relative-importance, to the Powers That be..The Currency will weaken further if it is a 50 Bp hike.Tito knows that.(3)The Rand vs Majors Charts are warning,and ready to prove it....100 Basis Points,or Else....(4) All the Majors,like Pound,Euro,even Yen are inidicating central Bank hikes ahead.###...Of course,I am Bank-PUT biased(heh).....omo.

[#8]

and just to add my Conspiracy theory for the Day(we all got 1,right ?)....the Smart-money has had over enough time to distribute(sell out) since 18Apr....and now the Retail-crowd will pay the price.Sorry, if that offends.That's the way I see it...Us little Sheep are always the last to get the Intel of who is Buying and Seling.Dump ahead.

[Brazen]

. . . and I'm going to boldly go where Simon's has gone before and say it's definately 50. (fuzzy pic of Simon in his Klingon outfit flitting across mind screen.)

[SimonPB]

OI, the princess would NEVER wear a tacky Klingon outfit.

[#11]

i call for a one 1 %, The majority of people in this country are not money Educated and that is bottom line to this. Thats my feel to this !

[Brazen]

Maybe so Hennie. But your name isn't Tito. Your name is Hennie.

[DST]

Is Klingon similar to cling-wrap?

[Brazen]

Yes. And that's about all we need to know about how you spend your hols in St Francis.

[#15]

u right and unfortunately iam a white sitizen in this country and not black !

[john_1]

There are events that move markets and those that don't and this my friends will be the latter. Its all in the price. So confident am I, that I am prepared to wager that Simon will were a cling wrap, klingon outfit to work, if there is a increase beyond 50 points.

[#17]

A white guy called Hennie! Who woulda thunk it.

[Brazen]

john-boy, I'm not one to judge as you know, but is it seemly for a father and married man to be so consistently interested in Simon's wardrobe?

[Preston]

Ja..John Boy. I am starting to think otherwise..?

[john_1]

tis a good point! Brazen. I will send you a email high lighting this very fact.