Ok, since we're definately talking about EXX . . . ms - there was no vicious downtrend. A few days ago there was quite a detailed discussion about EXX just before it broached 160. Based on Elliot Wave analysis and Fibonacci retracements, a pullback to around the 135 mark was anticipated by several forumites. And I believe some (preston? maggie?) believe it might still pull back to below 130. I concur Tom, this sudden blast off to over 140 is a bit thin. If I had Barnard's cahunas I would short it and get in at 135 - again . . . I think SSF profits should have been taken at closing today. Only My Opinion. If the dollar weakens some more then maybe she'll continue flaring up tomorrow?
AvS, my prediction that EXX will weaken was based on two criteria 1) If Eskom get its proposed tariff hike, this will become an additional variable cost burden on the cost of production. Gold has weaken since its highs. 2) Secondly MACD has cross over into "sell". Well done Tom for calling EXX. You made these guys some money.
Given the current theory, it seems 'A' was around 132 - 'B' could be anything from 140 to 160 *IF* we're in consilidation phase that is. I'm re-looking at this because I'm not quite convinced about the minor wave3. Wave3 is normally the longest and steadiest of the 5. And this seems to suggest that we MIGHT have lumped the minor wave3 into minor wave1 which could maybe just possibly suggest that the 'real' wave3 peaked at 160-ish. Therefore, the supposed wave5 which should follow on from that could be aiming for 178. And THEN followed by an ABC. hmm. No wonder they call it SPECULATION!!
Yes, that could very well be true on the JSE. Elliot Wave Theory relies on the human psyche, and obviously, the more humans are involved in the price movement, the better the probabilities of it being 'correct'. Most stocks on the JSE do not have sufficient volume in order for EWT to 'work', which is why it applies mostly to the indices. However, the bigger individual stocks do submit to EWT quite nicely.