FOS...Eish..

[Italiano]

I could not resist and bought in again!

[Surf_Rat]

I would have bought a ssf of the share if you so sure its got value This way you have more options and got some leverage also the futures are for those going long and short so you bound to have a squeeze also have some cash to take advantage of other opportunities

[john_1]

Hey Louisg I found that link I highly recomend you take a look.http://www.london.edu/assets/documents/786_GIRY2008_synopsis.pdf

[john_1]

Lehman Bros down 12% in the US.

[louisg]

The problem with SSF's is that you don't have the luxury of time.

[louisg]

john, thanx for the link. A word of caution. These data mining surveys DO NOT take into account fee and tax implications of the individual.If you pay 40% income tax on your net profits and 1-2% on fees you have to seriously outperform the market.

[john_1]

yes true, but it does show that buying winners is actually a very very good stratergy.

[louisg]

Correct. You try to buy short term winners and I try to buy long term winners.

[john_1]

not at all I want to buy long term winners also I just believe that like all thigs they start small and to do so you have to act in the present, PE's are historic. but price is the present. If a short term winner becomes a long term winner I am very happy. Which is why My top pick is ARI as it has been a long term winner 2 years in a row, vs FSR which has been a loser for some time, long term does not mean buying at the bottom.

[louisg]

I would rather buy FSR than ARI if I had to hold either share for 10 years. RMH has compounded its dividend annually by 26.4% over the last 10 years.(Their guidance for this year indicates possibly no increase.)What concerns me about commodities as an investor is that the companies are price takers. ie they cannot set their own prices. A thought on historical data: "In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield." Warren E Buffet. John would you consider youself a trader or investor?

[john_1]

I am trying to be the laziest trader ever, ie to trade as little as possible while making the maximum returns. With regards your bank vs ARI take the price of both start with 100000 put the money into RHB for the last 2 years and then lets use the historic index ( 16% I think)returns going forward for the next 20 years, then do the same thing having had your money in ARI for the last 2 years, what is the end result. I will have to ask one of you maths boff's to help me out here.

[john_1]

This thing about having to hold for 10 years. The best thing about the markets is the ability to allow for swift, cost effective change. To not use that to ones best ability is silly.

[john_1]

The fact that we are taxed is not a function of markets. Its a funtion of Gov. This will change. As it becomes clearer that finacial experts fail to produce market beating returns.

[Zirk]

Italiano, 12jun the news regarding retail is being announced in the US. (-0.2% with briefing.com consensus improve to 0.6%, excl auto is 0.5% to 0.7%) If this goes well and with todays financials screaming up you may see FOS sprinting in the opposite direction. Tito announcement may jeopardise though. For what its worth.omo

[louisg]

John,you certainly do need help. You can't just choose the time frame to suite your argument. By the way, the fact that we are taxed is the reality. Taxes cut profits. Ease off on that stuff you smoking.I'm joking.... or not.

[#16]

John does have a valid point. Here's an idea for you. The shares you want to buy and hold for 10 years - why don't you rather take your money and put it into a money market account for a year or two while these 10 years shares are dropping. Then, once it recovers to the same point its now, buy it. You'll already have profits at that point. Me on the other will have much more fun shorting it all the way down and buying it back up.

[john_1]

We all know I need serious help Mate, you recon I should up my medication. My argument is based on a very simple fact. Time matters and should be used as a measure of return and profit. In a 20 year investment life each month has a cost of 0, 41% (math's police please correct me if I am wrong) but each month means less time to compound. So holding losers has 3 negative effects : 1, loss of capital. 2, waist time. 3, lost potential to invest in something that is profitable. A 20% loss means a 25% gain, it requires double the time (linear for sake of simplicity but may be longer/shorter) and will have an opportunity cost measured against the best performer during that time frame. So choosing ARI was not simplistic it was me applying the basics of economics 101.

[john_1]

with regards tax, the reason 80% of traders lose money is that only 20% were dumb enough to tell the tax man about the profits. One word DIVIDENDS. Ever seen how shares tend to lose capital value and repace that loss with Dividends, Tax free Dividends.

[#19]

Louigi, you also have another problem. You have a belief that these 10 year shares of yours are worth more than the market rate them, and you want to force your belief onto the market come hell or high water or 10 years. Do yourself a favor and read a book called Trading in the Zone. The market should shape your belief and not the other way round.

[louisg]

Victorc, do you honestly believe you can time the market? If I took your advice and put my money in the money market, I would be guaranteed to have a REAL return loss. No thanx.