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Falling wedge

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sponono
Super Contributor
Nice falling wedge.
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14 REPLIES 14
Rams
Super Contributor
Yes, nice falling wedge.But on rising volume....or rather not on decreasing volume. My analysis based on ELLIOT WAVE is this :That last upturn towards the upper trendline of the wedge might be a "false breakout" which may form the 3rd reversal point on the upper trendline forming above the current upper trendline of the wedge. There will be some move up but a bigger move down. But lets see if it goes back to the bottom trendline or bounces of the upper trendline when it comes back down.
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FEK
Super Contributor
Based on charts what are your short term target price on Anglo American ?
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sponono
Super Contributor
my observation of falling wedges is that they take out the previous high. the target would therefore anything above R400.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
does falling or rising wedge ever actually work ??
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FEK
Super Contributor
Thanks, lets cross our fingers and hope........What sort of timeframe are you looking at for target above R400 ?
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Rams
Super Contributor
no,failure rate about 80-90%......even with volume as confirmation
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sponono
Super Contributor
Capco did a falling wedge between November and January 2011, broke through resistance at R16.60 and is now 20% higher year to date. GND did a rising wedge between Novermber and January and then collapsed by 31%. Yes, Simon they do work but like every trade, your stop is your best friend.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
huh ?? so completely and absolutely useless ..
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Not applicable
For me they work.Got a rising wedge on the sp500 futures 1 hr chart with overshoot in wave 5 just now.Correction in this run up with the alsi gap to close.So lets test if it works.
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Rams
Super Contributor
but why trade it when you can get stopped out 8 out of 10 times? I find that the problem with the falling wedge is that it tries to pick the bottom or top of the market and puts one in a trade thats counter trend... the TREND is your best friend. I dont trade wedges because it goes against the short term trend ...Thats just my view based on waves
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Terra
Super Contributor
< 32000c more likely.....
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sponono
Super Contributor
waves, ha? I never trade waves because I never understand them. I use chart patterns and stage bases.
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Rams
Super Contributor
and therein lies the beauty about trading....we all get there(or not get there) by different paths
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Rams
Super Contributor
and therein lies the beauty about trading....we all get there(or not get there) by different paths
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