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Online Share Trading

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GFI

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USERX
Contributor
GFI crawl back up in a market that is tumbling! Whats up. ANG down 3.7, Har down 3.3 GFI only .9 , coming back from down 4% earlier in the day. Gold still dropping in $ and ZAR, global markets still selling off. So where does this super strength of GFI come from, or is someone gambling / manipulating big time. If so, seems to me they are going to get burned.......

Huaron, what is you take?
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3 REPLIES 3
kr_pto
Super Contributor
Up in NYSE at the moment too. I think it was (and is) simply finding resistance at the lower levels today. nothing sinister, normal supply and demand.
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Not applicable
I don't know what's going on specifically. Except what I read in the papers this morning about yen interest rates effecting the world market. Now really! Selling newspapers is not the same as investing, so we should be careful what we read there as well as what you read here :) What we are in is a correction possibly as much as 25% and then I think we can get back to reality. Consider Chinese stock market increases - and our own inflationary increase of 44% in the past 6 months. The whole market is speculatory! Unfortunately, or fortunately for us contrarians, our commodity stocks are also falling with the markets, which leads to buying opportunities. I have been expecting a retreat to about R110 for GFI since it bought WAR, as WAR was highly hedged. But then GFI paid to unhedge WAR by issuing shares in a "private placement" which is always unfair as it means that shares for existing shareholders are worth less. Of course, they would still be worth less even in a rights issue, but then at least the resultant price would be factored into the rights issue. Standard Bank has predicted GFI's share price at R190 by the end of 2007. I think they might be right, but I think that GFI's share price must be realistic first. Also GFI is currently underperforming the market as well as underperforming the resources index, so I think that a correction for it is/was in order. Sorry I can't tell you why other commodities shares went down faster, except to say that GFI has been in a correction since it bought WAR so was already more realistically valued than other share prices. One thing I do want to say is that the Rand price of gold is still stationary in its current R4500 to R5000 "range" so as long as it stays above R4000 per ounce I won't worry too much. I expect the Rand price of gold to be above R5500 by the end of this year and expect gold stocks to reap rewards.
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USERX
Contributor
Thanks Huaron. Appreciated!
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