GND a buy

[kwagga]

Today's move was quite surprising, however I still think this share is a low risk short term buy at these levels. Div yield 4.14% Earnings yield 13.08% P/E 7.65 Price/Net Asset Value 1.58 RSI, MA, Stochastics all looking promising. Looks like it's breaking out from short term consolidation. Stop loss 13.60, First profit target R15.50. Next target 16.40. IMO

[manicks]

Agree totally...its a definate buy!

[#3]

Tell you what though, if GND hits 1360, I will be buying again. If it drops below that - I will contimplate re-morgaging the house.

[Werner_1]

GND stays one of the best opportunities i can find. I just love the company and think it offers excellent value for long term, patient investors. Its a company I love because when i email them to ask questions i always get very helpful people on the other end, all my questions are answered properly and never ever have i been ignored - This amazes me because i am a very 'small guy' in their world and they go through the trouble to reply to me... I cant say this for all the companies i emailed before. Also, the way they run their business interests me, acquire assets when markets are low and let the profits run when times pick up, the past few years has been the time where they could put that huge cash float to use... lets see how this benefits the firm when the economy picks up properly for shipping/transport.

[kwagga]

Done quite a bit of research and this is the best value for money I could find right now.

[#6]

Followed your advise and bought some GND shares this morning.

[kwagga]

Stick to the stop loss if it hits 13.60. That is the most important part.

[#8]

what effect will the recent news out of china re the yuan pegging have on shipping volumes?? one would think china exports will decrease off the back of a weaker currency.

[#9]

sorry, lower exports as result of stronger currency.

[kwagga]

lower exports will be offset by more imports. six of the one and a half a dozen of ther other. Richmont selling luxury goods into the Chinese market would benefit directly.

[Werner_1]

I agree, and China imports quite a bit of bulk material, such as iron ore, etc. This will help GND as they have mostly dry bulk as opposed to container ships that transport those exported stuff suck as clothes, electronics and finised products.

[striker]

Werners favorite share has got some new fans.(Kwagga,Skaaptjop) I hear your reasons for buying,but are'nt there are other great shares out there with even lower P/E's and higher D/Y's are'nt there?

[kwagga]

You're welcome to look for something better. I did my homework and are happy with my choice. Start with the share filter to save yourself a whole lot of work. div yield > 4 earnings yield >4 price\net asset value < 1.6 PE<10 market cap > 5000 then look at fin results for the last three years, div history and earnings history and bob's you uncle.

[#14]

there might be other great shares out there, but GND is a great stock. As I have said earlier, it is not going to shoot the lights out this year (read earlier posts), but it is unlikely to post a loss, giving their contract cover. R15 is about par value over the last year - I buy on the dips. If it drops below R13, I will add again. Technically, I don't know about buying right now - lots of dark cloud cover - for those who know what that means

[GarethJ]

Seems GND tracks the Baltic Dry Index to some degree. BDI busy breaking down through a strong support now which could be of concern? Interesting technical overview here for those interested: http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/baltic-dry-index-decline-and-the-sp500-june-22/

[#16]

Actually, there should be very little real correlation between GND and the baltic dry shipping index. GND have stipulated this many times in their financials. The reason being that around 80% of their fleet is already contracted for the year (at marginally better prices than last year, but at the stronger rand will weigh them down). The remaining portion will be impacted by spot rates. Where spot shipping rates become pertinent is closer to the end of the year, when 2011 shipping contracts get negotiated. If GND can negotiate higher contracts for next year, then we will be looking at quite a sizeable profit for the company, coming off this low base. However, at a PE of 9, I think this is already priced in (GND doesn't usually trade at high PE's)

[#17]

Most informative chat I have read on this forum since joining OST 4 months ago.Thank you all.

[coops]

Thanks gents, have been wanting to buy GND for awhile and this string has now put any doubts aside.

[topgun]

1H09 HEPS came to 105cps at an ave. R/US$ exchange rate of 9.24. Second half earnings came to 83.7cps for full-year HEPS of 188.7cps at an ave. exchange rate of 8.46. The ave. rate so far this year is some 20% stronger than that prevailing during the comparable period last year. GND also indicated that no ship sales are planned for 2010. I would wait for the trading statement due out in the first week of July to see how the market reacts ie. whether a >20% decline in earnings is discounted in the current share price. GND would do well to maintain last year's level of profitability for the full year. That said, I concur with the favourable lt. sentiments expressed on this forum towards this business. The persist selling of stock - even at current levels - by directors is however somewhat disconcerting.

[kwagga]

Like I mentioned before, great share, but even great shares drop, so keep those fingers on the sell triggers if it close below R13.60. I hope that doesn't happen, but you just never know.