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Gold coin supply 'drying up'

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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
http://www.fin24.com/articles/default/display_article.aspx?ArticleId=1518-2386-2400_2441266

not really a new story, first reports came out of the US around this about 2 or 3 months ago. An yet the relic still languishes well below the highs from earlier this year ?
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15 REPLIES 15
Not applicable
another interesting article pointing out the apparantly rare occurence of gold futures trading below current prices. Apparantly this is a very rare occurence, and a symptom of supply shortage http://www.kitco.com/ind/Turk/turk_dec122008.html -
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Vano
Regular Contributor
Hier kom 'n ding. Simon becoming bullish and pro conspiracy theory with regards to gold?
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
but if there is supply shortage - price rises. So this is then an abiration of sorts that suggests coins are a very very small part fo the gold market ?
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Wizard
Super Contributor
Well I bet u don't have the guts to go short on the Relic..hey Simon?? For the reasons we all know the commodities are selling off and probably finding a bottom. Relative to the other commodities the relic is not doing too bad at all. Gold/Oil ratio was less than 8 six months ago. Now it is close to 18. That's where this article fits in and telling u about the demand out there.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
my view on the relic is a long term generational thing - so shorting not an option. And further I am not saying that old won't spike from time to time and maybe even hold those price levels. I also don;t say that one shouldn;t short term trade godl in either direction. I am saying that in time to come gold will be largely worthless in price (much like silver). An looking back at the last 30 years of gold price action my theory is valid, and I think will remain valid.

An I did in practise go short by selling all the kruger rands I inherited. Except for one, coz when you got to toss a coin you may as well use a gold coin.
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Wizard
Super Contributor
Long term Gold should be viewed over what it is..very long term. The market cycle is 35 years. Looking at what has been happening the past 30 years gives u a picture of the time gold was selling off. From the peak of 1980 add 35 years and u get the year(estimation) of when gold will peak. Current events are similar to 70's and the case that we end up with that peak around 2015.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
wizard, I don't buy that theory. 2008 saw capitalism bankrupt (morally and financially), yet gold weakened during the biggest crisis to ever hit world global markets? So what is going to happen to drive gold to a new peak in 2015, and I assume you're talking an inflation adjusted peak which means what, $5000? I honestly can't see that no matter which way I stand.
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Wizard
Super Contributor
So far gold has been going up on the back of moderate inflation. The market crisis will not be over until end of next year so investor demand should take over soon and take gold to higher levels. That separation is a key and should be coming soon. The last piece of the puzzle as it happened in 1980 and 2015 in our case will occur with a massive participation of the crowd. Yes hyperinflation will be involved. Those stimulus packages from the Fed will do just that.
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barry_1
Super Contributor
Simon a serious question.I see that the installment on Simmers is now worth 3 cents....I'm afraid to take it,in case the bank withdraws it....please tell me that this won't be the case and it will run till expiary....Any othe remarks wellcome.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
why does demand wait until the end of the crisis to get in? An hyper inflation, I don't buy at all - I know the story, but don't buy it. But at least you have a theory, we may disagree, but it is better then the old hoary of (well whent he world ends we must all have gold) idea ...
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Wizard
Super Contributor
Well we have just witnessed the early stages of the heaven buying that everyone is talking about. That hasn't taken off yet as what I read gold has been sold off to cover positions. In other words used as cash. The hyperinflation can be look at this way..If a company is in debt it will issuer more and more shares to finance it's obligations. In the end it will have so many shares that their price will be worthless. Same for the dollar. The more they print the more it's going to cost them long term..and that's where the hyperinflation will come in and the flight to safety in gold.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
barry, tis a more dangerous instlament then anything I ever seen. SB won't withdraw it, but they are not sellers.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
printing US$ certainly does cost them long term, but hyper inflation? Once again, if we get hyper inflation in the worlds largest economy - then nothing is goign to save you bar bottles of water and guns ?
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barry_1
Super Contributor
thanks Simon,in that case i wont trade it.
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Project_Directo
Super Contributor
all those pirates off somalia have got all the gold coins ahhhr!!
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