Gold fields

[asylum]

Hi looking at investing some capital in gold is goldfields a good share to hold or are there better alternatives out there.I did notice that the RSI on goldfields is right down is that because of the hoaxs thing.

[Brazen]

I like to have a long term gold counter holding and I think GFI is the best of a bad bunch. If you buy and hold you can ignore the day to day volatility and I think 130 will look ridiculously cheap in 5 years. But, important caveat, a share like GFI should not comprise more than 5 to 10% of your investment holdings. And probably better 5 than 10.

[CE]

Who is this Gold Fields ?

[asylum]

pastorinis brother!

[TJH]

Anyone who is bullish GFI now is a sardine short of a shoal. GFI is in its final "C" wave down. In the next few months you should pick up GFI much cheaper and if the final wave "c" of wave C culminates in the expected market correction GFI has a downside gap at R91-50 which could get filled. All cycle peaks have some info to complete its upward phase. Norilsk Nickel who held 20 million GFI shares decided to dump them. Where? At the top of the cycle. The recent "B" wave up culminated in a "rumour" to buy-out GFI. The next bit of info on the wave/way down will probably see a central bank toying with the idea of dumping more gold.

[CE]

Thought it sounded familiar !!

[Brazen]

....sardine short of a shoal....LOL!!!!

[TJH]

I thought you would like that one. If GFI goes thru R142(not expected), please tag the sardine and throw me back into the water!?

[asylum]

Interesting. Was listening to the CEO of credit suisse last night very confident that silver and gold still much on the up and they haver invested quiet a bit in both.

[TJH]

Their time frame is probably way out in the future and they would be correct. If you happy to ride the ups and downs, GFI will eventually go all the way above R400. I'm just a greedy git that wants to buy below R120.

[Wizard]

Before u go away for 2 months...In what wave is the DOW?

[TJH]

Hi Wizard. The super grand cycle topped on 17 January 2000.We have had the "A" wave down bottoming 8 October 2002. We are now in a "B" wave up which has three impulse waves up and two corrective waves down. The tricky part is too identify them! Sometimes the waves are only known after the event. (One doesn't normally make buying or selling based on waves, but if a share is in a buy or a sell.) Wave one up is complete. The corrective wave that followed is probably a running corrective wave that is finished and we are now in wave 5 of impulse wave 3 which would mean that the corrective wave 4 is still to come. Coinciding with a correcting gold market? Impulse wave 5 would still need to come and could end in a 5th wave failure ie the 5th wave not going much higher than the top of the 3rd impulse wave. Wave B's can be higher than wave A's. Expect the market to go parabolic indicating a major top.

[Wizard]

Since the correcting wave 4 is coming in the B wave up,would that not coincide with the next leg up in Gold? Don't u think that is what Gold has been doing already since $560 last October?

[SimonPB]

if you are bulish on gold buy new gold, not a gold miner.

[Wizard]

That only depends on the risk profile of the investor.

[TJH]

Gold has also completed 3 waves up as part of its wave B movement. There should be a correction starting soon.

[SimonPB]

wizard, i don't agree. Being bullish on gold is very different to being bullish on gold mines. Sure they have different risk profiles, but waht's important is actually working out what you're bullish on and buying that, not some p(r)oxy.

[Wizard]

If the C wave is normally longer...we may see it go past 560 and and down to 500. However 730 soon will eliminate that scenario all together and confirm wave 3 up

[asylum]

Hi Simon where does one buy new gold from?

[Wizard]

If u overlay a graph of the `gold bugs' HUI index and $Gold, you will see that they are perfect match. However Gold has gone up 250% and HUI has gone up 1000%.