Grindrod - a good entry?

[Werner_1]

Guys, i hold GND in my long term portfolio, after the wonderful day on Wall Street, i am thinking maybe if the investors think that the economy might do a bit better after all these bailouts, GND will pick up a big, generating a interesting opportunity for GND SSF in the short term, yesterday up 7%, which is a nice gain when adding gearing, do you agree that today could also be quite interesting with some good moves?

[Shaun_Siddall]

Im going to stick it into my long term portfolio - to much volitility at the moment to trade SSF's it is gambling black or red....

[Werner_1]

Shaun, yes, thats true... markets gone nuts, lol... I really like GND, I believe now is a good time to get some more... Its connected to the economy though, so if that crashes we can see lower prices, but long term its one of the best - in my view.

[platsak]

Im also looking at this share. From a T/a side i think it may yet see July's lows. Im at least waiting for a crossover or volume spikes. Looking at the chart theres a lot of potential upside. If I miss the first 10% thereof it wont be the end of the world.

[Werner_1]

Yes, lots of upside to come if these global issues get ironed out.

[Mr_S]

hey when is the next dividend payout expected? Div yield is awesome!

[Werner_1]

They've just paid the div on 15/09/2008, so the next is most probably in march 2009 or so. i could be wrong?

[Mr_S]

ok thanks, how is this company fundamentally? im looking for strong capital appreciation and dividends, think this is a good one to stick sum bucks in?

[Werner_1]

I am a huge fan of Grindrod, it was one of the first shares i ever bought and i am not planning on selling it either, however it is cyclical and performs very well when the economies of the world do well, shipping is like that, when demand drops, its price will come a bit down, i only see this as buying opportunities for long term investments. Open this annual report (http://grindrod.investoreports.com/grindrod_ar_2007/downloads/grindrod_ar_2007.pdf?PHPSESSID=a5f691d...) go to page 12 and look at the increase in Total Assets, Year-end share price, dividend per share, HEPS, Revenue and Earnings, all in my view points to a excellent company. This report is very interesting and offers a very good overview to the company if you wish to find out more...

[Mr_S]

ok great thanks ill have a look at it

[JohnnyCash]

Werner, never marry a stock just because its been good to you. Unfortunately Grindrod is not going to be the performer of the past over the next 5 years. The bailout may sort the banks out or delay everything, but it is not going to change the economic conditions and prevent a recession. These transport companies give the leading indication of the economic recession we're facing or going to further face worldwide. Its difficult to see it though since Grindrod already gave a market update that they will increase full year earnings by 80%+. That however creates a high base on which they will see reduced earnings the following year and beyond.

[Werner_1]

Yes, i don't marry any stock, i review it whenever their results comes out (bi-annually) and so far GND has done well for me, i plan on holding for long term in any case as this was the idea to start with. I agree that shipping companies is the leading indicator to the economy, and maybe some downward pressures come, but i still have confidence in their management and abilities for my long term success.