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Growth without electrical capacity?

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topgun
Super Contributor
A fascinating aspect of SA denialism (besides the "airborne" disease that so occupies the national psyche and where so little progress is being made and the havoc being caused by the uncontrolled influx of refugees), is the ANC government's much publicised target to increase GDP growth to 6% p.a by 2010 and to halve unemployment by 2014 as embodied in its ASGISA document. Somebody desperately needs to infrom "the govt." that no capital intensive economy such as SA's can actually grow without addtional electrical capacity. Eskom is out of spare capacity already - as is evidenced in "load-shedding" which is becoming all the more frequent - and is on record as saying that no new baseload capacity will come on stream before 2012. It this yet another SA "miracle" in the making - growth without electricity - or can life get still more absurd? Hopefully, Polokwane will get more than its fair share of load-shedding in coming days!!
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19 REPLIES 19
asylum
Super Contributor
We live and hope topgun, rushed home from my office to do some trading today and what awaited me...eskom load shedding in some areas of Roodeport power came back on at about 4.30, have already had to change one dvd player, and one PC due to continues power failures, and yes i do know about power surge plugs but i pay insurance so wont buy plugs unless my insurer or eskom provide them free of charge. ok im finished ranting now.
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john_1
Super Contributor
topgun the answer is very simple... in Germany it is legislated that the grid MUST buy any excess electricity created using alternatives this eliminates the need for storage needs and makes it viable for solar pannels to be installed on homes etc.. the net effect is every home becomes a base station vs a consumer. I have written to Tito to raise this with the powers, the problem in SA is that local gov use the sale of eletricity as a major revenue generator and in this lies the rub.
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surfer
Regular Contributor
I was actually thinking the same thing.Would it not be funny if the Polokwane conference gets its fair share of load shedding.Then Jimmy manyi can argue that the skills shortage is a myth again
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Not applicable
I was wondering about the potential impact of power failures as well as future electricity cost increases on companies that rely on metal smelters, furnaces and stuff that run on electricity. Could really hurt them if places like Alusaf have to pay significantly more for electricity, or increase smelter downtime due to power failures????
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CrownA
Super Contributor
Let us make this forum political, but I think all of us need to prepare ourselves for the World Cup, where the stadium has lighting, and the rest of the world can view it on TV, but the man in his shack or bar around the corner will not be able to. Do you know Australia is preparing to host the 2010 World Cup - any bets anyone?
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topgun
Super Contributor
Part of SA's current power supply problems stem directly from the agreements entered into with these smelters - Alusuf, Mozal etc. by Eskom during the latter half of the 1990s whereby the utility agreed to supply them with electricity on a variable costing basis only given the excess capacity SA had at the time. Why else would BHP ship alumina all the way from Assie to melt it here? This is one of the (best)? kept secrets relating to our current capacity problems. Alec Erwin in his infinite wisdom then went ahead and signed a deal on similar terms to attract Alcan to Coega with no power station in sight. The majority of this power will have to come from Mpumalanga and from power stations yet to be built and will be heavily subsidised courtesy of the SA consumer. Anything to make a white elephant work much like the MIDP. The mind boggles!!
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
topgun, lots more to it. The gov wanted to break up eskom into REDS and as such eskom was not allowed to expand capacity until the process was finalised. Then gov back tracked on the idea but already it was way late. Then eskom did a presentation to cabinet working on 3% annual GDP growth, this when gov was targeting 6% and reality was 4.5%-5.5%, so eithwer way eskom was in a sense planning on being behind the curve.
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topgun
Super Contributor
Eskom is a parastatal with the ANC govt. as its only shareholder, yet there is no accountability and nobody is assuming any responsibility for this mess, despite the political appointments and the fact that Eskom was turned into a transformation experiment. The board furthermore pays itself R60m per annum. Now contrast this type of governance with the behaviour of the Tigerbrands board and Nick Dennis who was pushed/fell on his own sword after charging 35c too much for a loaf of bread.
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CrownA
Super Contributor
Will the last ones out of SA, please switch off the lights!
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Not applicable
and then we were exposed to the gibberish espoused by the ceo of escom on e-tv last night! No wonder the news reader cut him off!
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Pam_1
Regular Contributor
That the overall accountability he accepts is to say "sorry but..." implies some body parts of his must be cut off. Sorry for the unasked racism/colonialism but is there ANY example of a previously disadvantaged individual who resigned accepting responsibility for the mess he/she made?
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dreamgirl
Occasional Contributor
Pam; a person accepting or not accepting responsibility has nothing to do with colour of their skin.
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Stock11
Contributor
What people need to understand is that having too much capacity is as bad as not having enough. Having the right capacity is as easy as predicting what the alsi will do over the next two days. And I am not only talking about whether it go up or down, but also tracking exactly how each minute over two days it will perform. Everytime you switch on or off, is sort of the same as when you buy or sell. Just as much as there is limited stock of a compnay, there is limited electrons. So we can't all buy (switch on). There has to be sellers (switch off). Unfortunately the price in this case is irrelevant as it is fixed over a period and regulated by the Energy Regulator.
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shakira
Occasional Contributor
I have noticed that certain forumites start bringing up race when certain issues are debated, when as dreamgirl has pointed out these issues have nothing to do with race. People of all race groups participate in these forums and some groups might might feel offended or insulted by these comments. I believe in free speech, but I would like to participate in this forum without reading or making comments that might insult certain groups.
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MFA
Occasional Contributor
IPSA anyone (IPS on AltX) Eskoms the only company that doesn't want its market 2 use its product! It's been a long day. I'm off. Going to go do sum load-shedding of my own....................
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topgun
Super Contributor
The global norm is to operate on a reserve margin of 15% above peak capacity - in SA's case, the max. consumption during the winter peak. Also, the correlation between GDP growth and electricity demand for the SA economy is fairly predictable at 0.75 ie. if the economy grows at 5% in any one year, power demand should grow by about 3.75%. While I agree with your sentiments in respect of the possibilities to manage peaking demand with incentives etc., the fact is that Eskom and the ANC govt. reneged their responsibilities. That Eskom has approached the regulator for an 18% tariff hike merely underscores the extent of the mismanagement of this once proud utility over time with the consequent CPIX implications for the whole economy.
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topgun
Super Contributor
This is not about race but about ignorance - Eskom willfully rid itself of critical skills ito a political agenda during the latter half of the nineties. A fair portion of those skills now reside in coastal golf estates. For some of us, it might be acceptible to be pc and to sit in the dark - for others, this is just plain stupidity and those responsible should be treated with the contempt they deserve!!
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Stock11
Contributor
If you know the electricity industry you will realise that it has nothing to do with 'certain skills' being lost by Eskom but it is a cycle. The same thing happened in the 70s where there was the lack of investment to cope with the then increased demand. This led to (for some of us who were there)overinvestment hence mothballing of some power stations. The same thing is likely to happen again. By the time Eskom/IPPs catch up, the demand will have dropped to an extent that we will have stranded assets. So I say instead of worring about the past lets worry about the future, I don't want to pay for white elephants
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Not applicable
Colonialists and capitalist running dogs (lol) - has anyone read Bhpbil's Sens of today? Very, very muted about their interests in Africa and especially South Africa considering the historic tie! Obviously has nothing to do with future electricity supply!
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