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HIV infection rate and the economy

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Not applicable
HIV stats seem very misleading. Here is my explanation: From the internet I gather that the rate that HIV is passed on to women by recently circumcised males is very high as the wound has not healed. Imagine this situation: The recently circumcised male infects a female prostitute (the risk is high as the wound has not healed). Many other males then have sex with this prostitute and many get infected by her. This seems to me why circumcision of males does not reduce the HIV infection rate as much as expected, if at all. Even if the male is protected initially by circumcision, one can use a binomial distribution to give plausible evidence that if he carries on having sex long enough he will probably get HIV infection. There is a free stats program (bindistrib) at http://www.4shared.com/account/dir/6vUP2Vn9. Example: Say the chance of getting HIV is 0.05 on every sexual encounter. By my calculations, using the binomial distribution, after 20 encounters the chance of being HIV free is only 0.36 (about one third). http://www.restoringtally.com/circumcision-harm reports a study that indicates "Women with circumcised partners had more than a 50% increase in the infection rate of women compared to women with un-circumcised partners."
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13 REPLIES 13
Terra
Super Contributor
This reminded me of a poster that I've read about...Try different positions with one woman, instead of using the same position with different woman...
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MenuOption
Frequent Contributor
Yeah, prob of staying clean is (1-r)^n with r=rate of infection, given that every single interaction is with an infected individual (which may not be true), so use r' = r/10 for a 10% partner infection prob. Anyways, your point stands the prob of being infected grows exponentially with n, no matter what the underlying prob distribution.all that helps is that r is quite small, not 0.01, but maybe 0.0005 or something, taking both prob of getting disease * prob that partner has disease.
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Not applicable
I used a b(n,p) (binomial distribution) assuming the probability of getting HIV was a constant 0.05 and with 20 encounters (independent trials)and with the number of successes being zero (no infection after 20 trials).
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Not applicable
What's the LONG or the SHORT of this???
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Not applicable
Some Jews are going SHORT on circumcision while others remain LONG in tradition and SHORTer in others ways. The Jewish Circumcision Resource Centre at http://jewishcircumcision.org/index.htm has discussions
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
Actually it is mandated and not a choice. BUT all things in life are a choice. Some Jews convert to christianity too.
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CHATTYCHAT
Super Contributor
I M H O the male whose wound(s) are not healed after circumcision must be s e x craved to go for it under such b l o o d y circumstances. And the female who is targeted must be an idiot. What a farce!
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Preston
Super Contributor
An undercover lover bring you HIV from another.
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Not applicable
Actually there is discussion about males having sex before the wound is healed and stats have been done on this. It appears that the reason for male to female transmission being so high is largely because of this factor. Just one site discussing male to female transmission is http://www.restoringtally.com/circumcision-harm It reports that: Study published in The Lancet, Volume 374, Issue 9685, Pages 229 - 237, 18 July 2009. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60998-3. The study assessed whether circumcision in HIV-infected men would reduce transmission of the virus to female sexual partners. Circumcision of HIV-infected men did not reduce HIV transmission to female partners over 24 months; longer-term effects could not be assessed. Condom use after male circumcision is essential for HIV prevention. The results indicate that there is a probability of 21.7% HIV infection rate for female partners of circumcised HIV infected men, compared to 13.4% HIV infection rate for female partners of HIV infected men. Women with circumcised partners had more than a 50% increase in the infection rate of women compared to women with un-circumcised partners.
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Not applicable
Actually there is discussion about males having sex before the wound is healed and stats have been done on this. It appears that the reason for male to female transmission being so high is largely because of this factor. Just one site discussing male to female transmission is http://www.restoringtally.com/circumcision-harm It reports that: Study published in The Lancet, Volume 374, Issue 9685, Pages 229 - 237, 18 July 2009. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60998-3. The study assessed whether circumcision in HIV-infected men would reduce transmission of the virus to female sexual partners. Circumcision of HIV-infected men did not reduce HIV transmission to female partners over 24 months; longer-term effects could not be assessed. Condom use after male circumcision is essential for HIV prevention. The results indicate that there is a probability of 21.7% HIV infection rate for female partners of circumcised HIV infected men, compared to 13.4% HIV infection rate for female partners of HIV infected men. Women with circumcised partners had more than a 50% increase in the infection rate of women compared to women with un-circumcised partners.
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topgun
Super Contributor
Why this needless chatter when we all know the cure....garlic, beetroot and African potatoes and a shower as prevention? Follow your esteemed president's example and be done with all this Eurocentric know-it all attitudes.
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Blik
Super Contributor
Ok I may be missing something here - but what is the link back to the economy - from the Title of the thread? Is it that lots of people are going to die, and the economy will suffer, or will pharmaceuticals make a huge buck on ARVs....???
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CHATTYCHAT
Super Contributor
SA government intends to enter the manufacturing market for aids preventing medication - seemingly then the manufacturer will be an ORGAN (pardon the pun) of the state and the private sector gonna be sc re we d.
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