Too many smaller waves to justify head and shoulders - I hope. The down side looks like an inverted Elliot with the a wave coming up. If it is indeed Elliot, the final c wave will take us to heaven - again I hope.
Currently the stock is going bearish, I guess the buyers have confidence or are thinking at these levels BHP is cheap. Going down to R126 its like expecting the brent crude to be at R35/ barrel next week
what time frame you looking at...on daily the H&S you looking at is not convincing because what trend is it reversing. If you looking at downtrend from feb 2011, then a reverse H&S will be more likely as it will mean market goes up...this pattern you see is just a complex corrective pattern and it will complete if the market reverses around the 200-210 level. If i get a signal anywhere below 220, then I will be long again on BIL. Below 200, well maybe a new 5 wave downtrend or a triple correction which is even more bullish. This market is just waiting for something, good or bad to show the way forward. And no amount of makeup will disguise it!
I don't agree with your analysis. The trend is not reversing. It not reversing on the MACD, Momentum or RSI. This downtrend started 27 Jan, and is still intact. The formation of the head and shoulders strated 28 Nov 2011. It completed on 22 March 2012. It could take a few days, but according to my analysis the break would be down towards support at 21200. http://chartupload.com/viewer.php?file=14237658633711995710.jpg I'm sitting on my hands and waiting for that break.
The waiting is painfull indeed but switching on the candle sticks on the SB-chart reveals the downside inverted Elliot quite clearly, however distorted it may be. The "a" wave is nearing completion an I expect the "b" wave to approach 22900 after which the "c" wave should go north.
The way I see it, break down to confirm the H&S is below the current support between 226 and 231. There is a price divergence against the RSI with decreasing volumes, which suggests to me that support may hold.