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Brazen
Super Contributor
my little chickens. Cautiously optomistic?
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20 REPLIES 20
john_1
Super Contributor
Hi there B, hows the floor? Remember what happened with Investec... did a similar move on DB oh how very very sweet.
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Brazen
Super Contributor
MLA? Saw something funny there. How do you do it?? Well done!! Floors killing me and now there's some urgnecy. We've swapped our house for a killer apartment in Berlin over December and New Year. And it's faaaar from being finished.
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john_1
Super Contributor
what's the problem. the place in berlin is...
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Not applicable
Chicken is definitely the word. I'm not a bear, but: big gap up yesterday (yet to be closed), low volumes on up days generally, only a 50% retracement of where we fell to so far. Did a bit of Elliot Wave analysis on all the major indices (S&P, FTSE, DOW and ALSI) - I know, Elliot is very subjective, but the way I see it, we're at the top of the fourth wave in a down move, and the next wave (wave 5) is down - below the previous lows. Attended the tech analysis conference last week, and the big boys (Phil Roberts, Robin Griffiths et al) all seemed to see it this way too. The next few days will be critical ... long if we move up nicely from here, and short if we start moving down.
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john_1
Super Contributor
Hey greg well done for going, learn any new tricks?
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Brazen
Super Contributor
LOL John - ever the pragmatist! Yip, Greg, it could really go either way. I'm still mostly in cash with a few core, leftover positions. Did re- buy my 1000 JDGSTAs yesterday tho.
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john_1
Super Contributor
Took a gamble, and caught the ba$tards napping again.
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Not applicable
Went on a freebie (complimentary ticket) - would never have paid that much, but next year will be going even if I have to pay. Nicole Elliot (Mizuho Corporate Bank) presented on "Ichimoku" charting (an ancient Japanese charting technique that combines candlesticks and moving averages - she demonstrated how well it has worked esp with currencies (her view: a "catastrophic" decline in the USD towards the end of the year). Going to order the book she recommended to learn a bit more. Phil Roberts (Barclays) was excellent - explained Elliot Wave practically and how it ties up with Fibs - really made it seem simple. Robin Griffiths (Rathbones) did a great analysis of global markets - said the Dow is in fact in a secular downtrend (taking into account inflation) and that come 2020, we'll all be speaking Chinese and Gujerati (i.e. US dominance of the world markets is doomed - demonstrated by fundamentals and technicals). If I had paid for it, it would have been well worth it.
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Not applicable
If anyone's interested - the presentations are downloadable from www.technicalanalyst.co.uk/SA2007
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Not applicable
Cautious is right... sold off most of my turbos just before 2pm when the jse was flat at around 20% profit on each, jse has now tanked and hopefully the dow stays in the red and I can buy back some turbos tomorrow at a bargain...
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scandal
Super Contributor
what book did she recommend ?
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org
Super Contributor
Also see www.gold-eagle.com at tech analysis box or www.mahendraprophecy.com
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Not applicable
I love it when a plan comes together
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barry_1
Super Contributor
hi.just been watching the DOW ,the prices are really flying.Probably trail off later in their day as they pause for breath.Can be semi 'dead cat bounce" ,but market was over sold yesterday.Luckily got out of my top SB puts around 12 pm when their futures started soaring.
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Brazen
Super Contributor
Good job barry and TZ. Sooo, is this market gonna tank or not? And if it is, I'd really like to know when. Guess nothing moves in a straight line - neither up nor down.
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john_1
Super Contributor
Thanks Greg, I found it very usefull. Hey Brazen whats the problem cant you hear that fat lady warming up her voice.
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JohnnyCash
Super Contributor
Brazen, hows your stoploss on EOD been working for you? What do you do if their's a large down move during the day and perhaps it goes 1 to 2% past your stop? Do you at some point trade out on intra day? Just interested and thanks in advance for your comments.
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Brazen
Super Contributor
Hey JC, good to have you back! I'm still sticking to EOD. It has worked very well BUT bear in mind I'm only in instalments so gearing is not a problem. I find most times if something closes below my stop there's often a rally in the morning into which I sell, minimising losses. Confession tho - during the massive tank days a few weeks ago, I didn't sell. I just held on figuring they would recover in time. I had IMP, SAP and AGL. I still have a loss on IMP (a lot smaller than it was) but the other two have come right back. Problem with SSFs is that you don't have that option. Very tricky at the moment. When I see a market like this one over the past 6 weeks I really question the wisdom of highly geared products. I think we've seen the last of a lot of punters.
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Brazen
Super Contributor
Were you in any SSFs when the market swan dived? Hope all worked out relativley OK for you?
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