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Hey Electrox, Wizard?

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Super Contributor
Hoo boyo's, did you see that 4-bagger last night on the EURUSD? Right around 16h00 I got irritated with the lack of follow through and booked my long for a small profit. Then I drive home and watch the silly bugger flop sideways and then after 20h00 my bug eyes pop out and I can't believe it's happening right in front of me. And yes, I missed it because I didn't believe what I was seeing! Goes to show: Forget the EZ, Trichet and all the other clowns out there (specially our parliament and 'revered' idiot savant leaders), it's the Fed, and only the Fed that moves markets. The thing now is that the USD has weakened substantially overnight but the US markets did not really move (90 pips on the DOW is insignificant compared to a 4 to 5c move). One must give and methinks the DOW going to rally some lots more as futures right now are not convincingly down
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19 REPLIES 19
Super Contributor
guess what I'm trying to say is that the gap might just not close today or for a while. There's too much tension out there
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Not applicable
Aha, you have just answered my burning question as to why the gold spike late last night. I think it might have something to do with fed's decision to prop up the bond market - although this is over my head. Looked at my portfolio this morning and realized that I am now significantly overweight in gold. Will have to correct this, mid morning
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Not applicable
Nova, I get the idea you think this is more than just a bounce, but it might be a short term rally? What will confirm that?
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Valued Contributor
the future - it confirms everything ..
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Super Contributor
Ya Nova, I thing we are gonna rally too. And, interesting what Simon and Wiz were pointing out yesterday, that these bear rallies can last for months and months. Plenty long enough for many to think the bottom is in and return to the market.
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Valued Contributor
brazen, exactly and that fuels the rally .. then maybe it all collapses .. but bear market rallies are measured in months, not days ..
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Super Contributor
skaaptjop? that's the scary thing, such a wild reaction to the Fed printing money and then borrowing it from themselves based on a promise to pay it back. Thing is that the US has no heavy manufacturing capacity left of any significance compared to the East. This reaction is emotional and based on the belief that the Yanks always bounce back. Now history proves that if you underestimate the Yanks, you lose, that simple, so for now my money is on the Yanks. I expect maybe 1.48/1.49 and a touch on 1.50 on the EURUSD (and USD Index will venture into the 70's again). The only thing that really, REALLY bothers me is that I believe this USD weakening is happening far, FAR to soon. Think about this: You own the reserve currency of the world nuh? So, if you borrow from anyone else you're actually borrowing in your own currency nuh? (just converted to the lender's) so you want to borrow when your currency is strong relative to the lender's? nuh? And when you start paying back the loan you want a weak currency nuh? Currency devaluation is a great equalizer. If I was running the Fed, this is exactly what i would be doing to China, but not right now as the time's not right so I seriously think there's some seriously 'semi-official' shennanigans going on even though most of last night's move is due to speculators and long timer's repositioning
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Super Contributor
Brazen, Simon, I agree with you both. Only the future knows nuh? No point 2nd guessing this one. Them bones tell me this is one of those situations where every rabbit, bull, and bear, is staring gob-smacked straight into 'THE SPOTLIGHT'. A great deal of caution is is a healthy tonic right about now. Though, on balance, I'm still convinced we're going to see a serious one to two month rally and then a relentless and steady, slow grind down into the Greater Depression. Howz the saying about May again? Look for 30% to 100% moves at Index level over the next two years. I reckon we surface out of this monster maybe around 2014 or 15. OMO
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Not applicable
Ah Simon, like a microsoft manual you are - technically correct but practically useless
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Super Contributor
2015? So soon? LOL! Now that's the nova we know and love.
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Highlighted
Super Contributor
Yebo. Certainly we're flapping around in mid-space: http://dshort.com/charts/bears/four-bears-large.gif - great graph, updated daily
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Super Contributor
fTSE/ TOP40 Current intraday price action? wats going on .we flying up and the ftse flying down.. Closeouts maybe..
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Not applicable
Don't know why, but I'm overcome with a wave of bullishness at the moment. Both Billition and TOPI is sitting under key resistance levels. Gold is sitting just above its. It's like those tipping points they talk about in global warming circles.
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Super Contributor
What a move last night hey.... :) The rally still has to go on ;)
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Super Contributor
What happened last night is that the interest rates in the US are now at -1 or something like that
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Super Contributor
Hey Wiz? don't let the deflation secret out nuh? ;-) Anyway, just check out our TOP40 Cash, Hooo boy, we're right there on the resistance of the bear trend stratching all the way from the 22 May 08 high of 31393!!!. If this goes through then we will see 26000 in short order
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Super Contributor
Hey Nova_ Just Got in now... Phew what a day.. Im sure a lot of bears where confident at yesterdays close.. I sure learnt something Today.. Even though im smiling in profits. The Weekley Eur/Usd Divergences on almost all indicators showed that the USD couldnt strengthen more than 1.2450..ish. so can we call it official that we are now in the Bear's Rally?
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Super Contributor
I reckon so Electrox, this rally just proves how you just don't argue with a stampeding bull. When that resistance line and up channel on the USD Index failed at 88.50 on 11 March I knew it was only going to be a matter of days for it to start retracing back to 80.00. Man, there's some opportunities setting up (now if I can just catch 'em and not close out a profit trade right before the market moves nuh?) Anyway, the USD Index says we gonna rally and then some. I would definitely not call a short right now. Man! this is one of the most forceful rally days I've ever seen. Anyone have an idea of volume for today? Wow man, this close is going to be decisively above the major bear trend. On the other hand we've overshot the upper bollinger as if it wasn't there. Insane action man
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Super Contributor
Eish, on the 9th and 10th March every bear instinct I have told me to take profit and close my shorts. I even posted my view and I hope it at least helped some of you to be cautious? Thank goodness I've gained experience AND some smarts over the past decade. I am staying well clear until I'm certain we're in a sustainable rally. Today was just a wild stampede in one direction and I seriously expect a corrective pullback either tomorrow or Monday to reset oscillators to sane levels. If that holds it, as I strongly suspect it will then that dip will be the buying opportunity of the year and I'm going long with at least a 25% clip
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