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Honours thesis topic

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Good afternoon all. I am currently doing my honours year at Stellenbosch University. The main thesis topic I am looking at is something to do with technical analysis (I am still not 100% certain). I am thinking of looking for trading systems that have been around for a few years (such as the turtle trading system) and seeing if they would still be successful in todays market, especially with regards to SA's most liquid stocks (Top 40). Does anyone have any ideas as to where I could find some information on past systems or any other ideas that could be more beneficial? Thank you so much. Marek van Wyk.
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12 REPLIES 12
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Thanks Alsi :) Any other systems that you feel could assist me? And what do you think about the topic? Be as honest as possible (without getting kicked off the forum ;), just kidding haha) Thanks again
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Thanks Alsi :) Any other systems that you feel could assist me? And what do you think about the topic? Be as honest as possible (without getting kicked off the forum ;), just kidding haha) Thanks again
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marek...u are welcum to post your request on our forum...I am sure there are many guys whow would gladly share their systems...in fact many have posted them on their personalised area on the site...www.realchartist.com...just need to register...its free.
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there is a facinating trader (justin) who trades the Ninja system very successfully...I will tell him bout u
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TOPIX
Regular Contributor
Why don't you look at (the profitability of) algo trading. Some analysts estimate that up to 60% of volumes are done by algo's. The average trader does not know a lot about algo's. You may just gain knowledge that can make you more marketable.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
the algo boys are not going to let you into their speadsheets ..
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Watch out that you don't bite off too much than you can chew. The rules for turtles are simple - but you must remember that they put a large importance on stock selection prior to actually trading the stock. So you will end up with a pretty complicated hypothesis. My suggestion would be that you keep it simple. Try a simple hypothesis, that states that it is possible to beat a buy-to-hold strategy by cycling in and out of a stock (a bit thin, the hypothesis would need work). Pick a stock that has consistently generated returns, like SAB, so as to remove a whole lot of variables, like profitability, returns, etc. Then chose any TA strategy - the turtles would be a good one, to demonstrate that using the same initial position as margin on a leveraged call, you can generate a better return than simply buying and holding. Just a thought
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You can try a book by Michael Covel called Trend Following or visit his site www.michaelcovel.com
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Blik
Super Contributor
Unrelated advice maybe, but remember that an Honours is meant to give you but a taste of research. I am not sure of Stellenbosch's honours structure, but my honours thesis only accounted for 25% of the total course mark. So take Skaap's advice, and dont bite off too much. Rather save your research energy for a good Masters or Ph.D.
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doomsdayza
Super Contributor
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Thanks so much for all your guys advice. And I agree that I shouldn't make it too complicated. Over this weekend I will look into all of your suggestions and let you know where I end up :). Thanks again. Much appreciated.
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