I am interested to know

[john_1]

What do you guys think is the single biggest risk to stock markets at this point in time. What is the one event that could come from left field and mess everybody arround.

[#2]

Property market and banks

[asylum]

no thats already been dicounted in my ho.

[SimonPB]

collapse of a large US bank.

[Brazen]

What Simon says. And the massive correction in commodities some have been predicting for the last 5 years.

[john_1]

here is my thought, The chinese unpeg their currency, this would make the currency and commodity markets go nuts.

[#7]

to our stock markets or world markets...

[Hibiscus]

Stupid question! The answer must be linked to a probability of the event to take place.

[striker]

Unchecked inflation and faltering Chinese/Indian econ growth

[john_1]

why has that got anything to do with it. there is a 100% certain that some unforseen event will upset the apple cart at some time in the future. we are speculating on what might tip the cart.

[Hibiscus]

World war 3 may be such an event - Why; One can argue all the economical variables - but - the probability of such an event is ... say 5%. If - Chinese economy is at this stage 'driving' world economy; any negative disturbance there may cuase the cart into a slope towards being turned over - (or more on track!) What will that be and what is the likelihood of it to happen? Like you said the currency?

[CrownA]

Osama Bin laden et al - another terrorist attack/World War III

[john_1]

Hibiscus have you read the book "the balck swan" if not, I highly recomend it.

[Guardian]

I think a crash in Technology would really upset the cart. India being one of the leading imurging markets has good IT skills,however, the Indians are dispursed all over the world incl South Africa. If they decided to remain in their country it could have an effect on the rest of the world...OMO.

[asylum]

TITO

[john_1]

Fifa moving the world cup...

[YNWA]

Discovery of cheap (=$10/bbl) substitute for oil....

[john_1]

we have it...tequila baby

[PaulC]

John, Im almost finished Black Swan. Have you read his previous work Fooled by Randomness. Personally I prefered the first book (perhaps because the concepts were more novel to me then) but I highly reccomend both books to anyone who thinks they trade with any level of skill. - P

[#20]

Hitlers definately coming back. That red wine saved him